(FORTUNE Magazine) – MAYBE IT really is lonely at the top, or the perspective is longer. For one reason or another, the chiefs of America's largest corporations don't always see things the way the rest of their fellow citizens do. A case in point: For several months, national voter surveys awarded Michael Dukakis a distinct lead over George Bush for President -- but in the latest FORTUNE 500/CNN Moneyline CEO poll, half of the corporate leaders who responded said they think Bush will be elected. Only a third believe Dukakis will prevail, while a substantial 17% are still unsure of the outcome. William Boeschenstein of Owens-Corning Fiberglas, a Bush supporter, says confidently, ''There hasn't even been a contest yet. The acceptance speech was extraordinarily positive. It will generate momentum for his whole campaign.'' The wish may be father to these thoughts, since 86% of the CEOs are Bush supporters. Many know him personally. That only 50% of the CEOs now think the Republican candidate will win constitutes a dramatic drop from the beginning of the year, when they gave the Republicans a 90% chance to hold on to the White House. Why the slippage? Dukakis's alliances with Jesse Jackson to his left and Senator Lloyd Bentsen to his right are among the main reasons the CEOs feel that a Republican victory now looks less certain. Observes Donald Caldwell of Atlantic Financial Federal, an S&L holding company in Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania: ''So far everything has just gone Michael's way.'' FORTUNE's poll was taken shortly before the Republican convention began and Bush picked Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana as his running mate. The opinion research firm of Clark Martire & Bartolomeo surveyed over 200 CEOs from FORTUNE Industrial 500 and Service 500 companies, and FORTUNE subsequently spoke with a number of them about Bush's choice of Quayle and other matters. Some highlights: The CEOs believe pocketbook issues are the key to the campaign. They put the deficit and the economy at the top of the list. ''The Republicans will pound away about how much better off we are than eight years ago,'' says William Goessel of Harnischfeger Industries, a Wisconsin equipment manufacturer. ''And the Democrats will go on about the deficit, since everything else is better.'' Donald Lasater of Mercantile Bancorp. in St. Louis sees it differently. ''The Democrats will say a lot of people aren't sharing in prosperity,'' he says. ''People don't take pride in their country when there is so much suffering.'' To the CEOs the third-biggest factor will be charisma -- the personality and presence of the candidates. Says Edwin Lupberger of Middle South Utilities: ''The election will be a charisma battle. And neither candidate has any.'' James Baker of Arvin Industries thinks that by picking a young, attractive running mate, Bush will beat Dukakis on this score: ''Quayle looks like Robert Redford. Women not only like to listen to him, they would like to kiss him.'' Baker isn't bothered that Quayle is relatively unknown. ''Dukakis is the one who needed a recognized, experienced leader on the ticket with him,'' he says. Adds Howard Humphrey of Franklin Life in Springfield, Illinois: ''I'm happy Quayle is from the Midwest, but I'm neutral on whether he'll help Bush because I don't know much about him.'' Counters E. B. Leisenring Jr. of Westmoreland Coal in Philadelphia: ''I don't think Bentsen is any better known. Quayle will be helpful because of his youth relative to Bentsen.'' Several CEOs thought ''the National Guard thing'' would probably ''blow away,'' as one of them put it. Why are nearly nine out of ten of the CEOs for Bush? John McConnell of Worthington Industries, a Columbus, Ohio, steel processor, speaks for many: ''Everything is in such good shape that we want to keep it that way. The steel industry is getting healthy for the first time in years.'' Adds W. R. Timken Jr. of Timken, a bearing manufacturer in Canton, Ohio: ''We know the programs and policies of Bush. Stability is what makes for good business.'' Many CEOs expect continued deregulation, fair corporate taxes, and other perks from Ronald Reagan's political partner. Arvin's Baker sums up big business's view: ''The Republicans listen to business. We know Bush would help us.'' The CEOs have no such confidence in Dukakis. Says Middle South Utilities' Lupberger: ''His obligation is to labor, minorities, and women. These people have got him, not business.'' Some wary CEOs fear that a Democrat would bring back the high interest rates and inflation of the Carter era. ''The economy was on the rocks,'' says John Crean of Fleetwood Enterprises, a Riverside, California, mobile home manufacturer. ''I worry about a repeat with Dukakis.'' Crean says the success of his homes depends on low interest rates. % Almost all of the CEOs also think Bush would do a better job than Dukakis at reducing the deficit -- their major concern. Says James Cotting of Navistar International: ''We'd better wake up now or it will be too late to fix it. By increasingly becoming a debtor nation, we will lose our sovereignty.'' John Rollwagen of Cray Research, the Minneapolis supercomputer company, worries that ''if we continue on this path, an economic crash is coming. The Japanese could refuse to finance our debt.'' Why would a Republican President be more apt to shrink the deficit? Many CEOs echo Cotting's belief that ''the whole Republican philosophy is oriented to holding down expenditures,'' while the Democrats come off as big spenders. ''Dukakis will find it particularly difficult to resist spending,'' says David Swanson of Central Soya in Fort Wayne, Indiana. ''Reagan has created a pent-up demand for social programs.'' Warns Fleetwood Enterprises' Crean: ''There will be a wildfire with both a Democratic Congress and a Democratic President.'' Even at some companies that benefit from high government spending, the CEO opposes any expansion of it. The government buys about a third of Cray's supercomputers, but ''the deficit outweighs everything,'' Rollwagen insists. NOT ALL CEOs believe Bush will manage to do much about it. In fact, to 5% of them neither candidate has the edge on this count. ''It will be a tough row to hoe,'' argues George Mead of Wisconsin's Consolidated Papers. ''One leans toward defense spending, the other to entitlement programs.'' Humphrey of Franklin Life blames the political system, not the candidates. ''The terms of Congress and the President are too short,'' he says. ''They're too busy trying to get reelected to fix the deficit.'' The CEOs prefer Bush even though most of them think he will have to do something he says he won't: raise taxes. While 98% of them are sure Dukakis would increase taxes, 65% believe Bush would too. Most CEOs -- along with FORTUNE (August 15) -- doubt that either candidate can avoid it. ''I see no alternative if we're going to get the deficit down,'' says Swanson. ''They've run out of accounting gimmicks,'' Mercantile Bancorp.'s Lasater contends. To the CEOs the real issue has become not whether taxes will be raised, but how. CEOs naturally expect that Bush would be kinder to corporate America and to the rich than Dukakis. ''Bush will stay off the backs of business with taxes,'' says Boeschenstein of Owens-Corning Fiberglas. Some CEOs believe Bush might try out consumption taxes instead. A big minority, however -- 31% -- take Bush's promise seriously. Lupberger of Middle South Utilities is one of them: ''I think Bush is a gentleman, and gentlemen don't go back on their word.'' Only 7% of the FORTUNE 500 CEOs polled say they expect to vote for Bush's opponent. One of them is Rollwagen. ''At least Dukakis is a fresh shot,'' he says. ''We need a change in how the economy is being managed.'' Rollwagen has something else to reckon with: ''My wife and I agreed to vote for the same person. So far Dukakis is winning for us.'' The remaining 7% aren't sure whom they'll vote for. Some are waiting for George Bush to reveal more of what he really thinks once he emerges from Ronald Reagan's shadow. Others find both candidates uninspiring. William McCord of Enserch, a Texas-based diversified energy company, belongs to both groups. ''I haven't yet heard Bush's stand on taxing oil imports,'' he says. ''But I don't see any great gain internationally, domestically, or personally coming from either party.''

BOX: HOW THEY SEE THE CANDIDATES

Q. Whom would you prefer to win the presidential election?

A. Bush 86 Dukakis 7 Not sure 7

Q. Leaving aside your own preference, whom do you expect to win?

A. Bush 50 Dukakis 33 Not sure 17

Q. Who has a better chance of reducing the federal deficit?

A. Bush 83 Dukakis 8 Neither 5 Not sure 4

Q. Do you believe that Bush, if elected, would raise taxes?

A. Yes 65 No 31 Not sure 4

Q. Do you believe that Dukakis, if elected, would raise taxes?

A. Yes 98 No 1 Not sure 1

Q. What do you think will be the most important issue in the campaign?

Federal deficit 29 The economy 26 Charisma 14 Leadership 10 Foreign affairs 8 Ethics 7 Social programs 6 Experience 5

Total exceeds 100% because of multiple answers.