FORTRESS STOCKS WHOSE PRICES WON'T DRIVE YOU UP THE WALL
By ELLEN SCHULTZ

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Rattled by reports of companies tottering under a load of junk-bond debt? Worried about a slowdown in corporate earnings that could send the stock market tumbling? If caution is your buy word, you'll want to search for companies with citadel-like balance sheets whose profits keep coming through in bad times. Trouble is, that idea has entered so many investors' heads that prices for many of the best-known defensive stocks, notably in food and pharmaceuticals, are larcenously high. How much should you shell out for safety? ''It makes sense to pay a little more for above-average growth and high quality,'' says John McDowell, co- manager of Fidelity's Blue Chip Growth Fund. ''A company selling at 20 times earnings could be attractive if you think it will grow 20% a year over the next three to five years.'' With this in mind, Fortune screened for ! quality stocks -- those with high financial grades from Moody's and Value Line -- at reasonable prices. Those on the table below have been selling at or below the market's price/earnings multiple of 13.7, or command a premium of no more than the 20% that may be warranted by the company's bright prospects. If the prices still strike you as too high, be ready to pounce the next time the stock shows weakness. First, the pricier paragons. Sara Lee, selling at 16.5 times earnings, is a chip of the deepest blue. It's the fastest-growing brand-name food company and the lowest-cost producer in most of its businesses. Earnings per share have grown at a 16% rate since the mid-1980s, and Bear Stearns analyst June Page expects a 15% annual growth rate over the next several years. Another high-growth company whose premium price may be worth it is Bausch & Lomb, the world's leading supplier of contact lenses and solutions. Sales of the company's sunglasses, which account for about a third of its revenues, are expected to climb 20% next year, thanks to the ever-popular Ray-Ban line and strong demand for the recently introduced Donna Karan shades. They go for $150 a pop. Leonard Yaffe of Montgomery Securities in San Francisco looks for 17% annual earnings growth over the next three to five years. Analysts think newly joined Bristol-Myers Squibb deserves its 20% premium. Debt is a measly 4.8% of capital, and Christina Heuer of Smith Barney expects earnings to grow 24% next year. The stock's dividend yield is above the market average of 3.2%. A yield kicker lands Philip Morris in the quality club. The company pays a 3.4% dividend, despite a debt load of 67% of long-term capital that it took on to acquire Kraft (see Corporate Performance). Philip Morris's huge cash flow from cigarettes makes its debt manageable. Brown-Forman, distiller of Jack Daniel's whiskey and Southern Comfort, has low debt and earns 34% on shareholders' equity. Oppenheimer's Joseph Frazzano thinks earnings will grow 15% annually in coming years. If a premium of any kind bothers you, consider the other companies on the list. Seagram, another distiller with a cash flow that's more than moonshine, is selling at a 12% discount to the market. Nicor, one of the nation's largest gas utilities, doesn't boast fast growth but provides reliable earnings and a plump dividend yield of 4.7%. If you want to put your money in the bank, take a look at Banc One. Last year the innovative Ohio company topped 48 of the 50 largest U.S. banks in return on assets. Security analysts expect earnings to grow about 22% next year. Some companies in this group are in industries sensitive to a slowing economy. But one of them, 3M, has an above-average dividend yield of 3.5%, a return on equity above 21%, and generous free cash flow. And if the leveraging of America keeps you tossing at night, take a soothing look at General Electric, Du Pont, and Loews, the New York conglomerate that owns cigarette maker Lorillard. For all three, debt is low. No wolves growl at these doors.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: NO CREDIT CAPTION: NO DEBT PAINS HERE Profits keep pouring out of these companies, just like sterile solution for soft contact lenses at a Bausch & Lomb plant.