(FORTUNE Magazine) – There's a euphoria that the Soviet Union is about to collapse and all our problems will be gone. I'm assuming that Gorbachev will be in power at the end of the decade. Right now he is strengthening his authoritarian control in order to force through radical economic reform. He is an extremely strong man leading an extremely strong political system. Gorbachev does not see democratization as crucial for economic growth. His model is more like Chile under Pinochet, or Taiwan and South Korea. But I believe he deliberately heated up the nationality question in order to create more pressure for economic reform: You cannot have autonomy for Lithuania without changing the economic system. It is crucial to understand that the Russians are coming home to Europe. The Bolshevik Revolution was an unnatural iron curtain against Europe. We have ended 400 years of wars for the 600 million people living in the Western alliances, and the Russians want to be a part of those alliances. By the end of the decade, war between Russia and other European nations (as well as the U.S.) will be as unthinkable as war between Britain and Germany is today.