(FORTUNE Magazine) – I do not believe in the fashionable notion of American decline in that I do not see any other country rising to replace us. Europe, including Eastern Europe, is going to be a major power economically but not militarily, and it will be politically dispersed. Japan will still not be significant militarily, and its capacity to function as a major economic power will depend very much on the degree to which we and the Japanese can build a stable relationship. The U.S. is going to be the dominant world power for as far ahead as I can see. If we overcome the current hostility, we will see the emergence of a partnership I call Amerippon, an amalgam of America and Nippon. If both countries play it smart, we will have congruent policies, including joint / boards of directors of major business enterprises and a fusion of resources. If we drift into collision, both countries will suffer, but Japan more. The fourth major power will probably be the Soviet Union, although I think there is a chance it will no longer exist. It has plunged into a protracted internal crisis with no terminal date in sight. The crisis will either evolve into a chaotic democratization or some sudden lurch toward a repressive restoration of centralized rule. That rule would be based on Russian nationalism, held together by institutions like the KGB, the army, and the Orthodox church. Moscow might allow many of the republics, including the Muslim and Baltic states, to separate, but I do not think it would let go of the Ukraine. By the end of the century, the Ukraine, which has a population of 52 million, may be the largest single nation in the world denied self-determination. What should the U.S. military role be? We should have no more than 50,000 troops in Europe, down from the present 305,000. The remaining troops would act as guarantors of the security system and as a forward force if we should need to redeploy. The U.S. has been the global policeman, but I think increasingly we will be the global air traffic controller. You obey the cop because he will put you in jail. You obey the traffic controller because you don't want to crash. The world system still needs an arbitrator, and the U.S. will play that role.