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WANNA MAKE A DEAL IN MOSCOW? FORTUNE's publisher looks beyond the red carpet. He tells what it was like when 14 top American CEOs went to Russia to talk investment with Mikhail Gorbachev.
(FORTUNE Magazine) – IT'S THRILLING to have a front-row seat on history-in-the-making -- even if just for an inning or two. For me, that opportunity came last month when I was invited by U.S. Secretary of Commerce Robert Mosbacher to join 14 chief executive officers -- mostly from FORTUNE 500 companies -- on an unprecedented presidential mission to the Soviet Union. The purpose of our trip was to investigate the economic and humanitarian reasons for investing in the U.S.S.R., and to show the flag a bit. These days the Europeans, especially the Germans, are quite visible in Moscow and throughout the Soviet Union. The Japanese are also stepping up their activities. As a nation the U.S. cannot afford to abdicate this huge potential market to its competitors. On September 8 we flew from Washington aboard a Boeing 707 with THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA emblazoned on both sides. Our first stop was the U.S. Embassy in Helsinki, where President Bush had asked to brief us following his one-day summit meeting with Mikhail Gorbachev. The President told us that both he and Gorbachev attached great importance to our visit. At their first summit in Malta last December, Bush recalled, Gorbachev had told him that ''food was no problem for the U.S.S.R. -- we use bread for footballs, it is so abundant.'' But the previous week, despite a record wheat harvest, there had been no bread available in Moscow. The President emphasized that even now, with the Soviet economy deteriorating daily, Gorbachev was not asking for direct government aid. The Soviet leader made it clear that he was hungry for investment from the private sector and considered American technology and management skills critical to perestroika's success. Bush concluded by noting that while the Soviets have a long way to go before they truly understand how a market economy works, Gorbachev is at least saying all the right things; in particular, he now acknowledges the need for widescale privatization of state enterprises. Afterward three motorcades raced for the Helsinki airport down streets cleared of traffic in both directions -- first Bush's, then Gorbachev's, and finally ours. As we moved smartly down the lanes for oncoming traffic, we noticed that we were overtaking another motorcade on the right-hand side of the highway. It was Gorbachev. Urged on by the CEOs' rowdy cheers, our driver stepped on the gas and cut in front of Gorby's escorts. Another small victory for capitalism! Our delegation included old Soviet hands, such as Dwayne Andreas of Archer Daniels Midland and PepsiCo's Don Kendall, and a surprisingly large crowd not personally familiar with the country. Yours truly was very much in the latter category. But all of us either had invested in the U.S.S.R. or were considering opportunities to do so. Bill Esrey of United Telecommunications, which specializes in long-distance services and networks, is installing the first-ever data communications switching center in the U.S.S.R. to handle fax and electronic mail. Don Marron of Paine Webber hoped to assist the Soviets with their plans to open a stock exchange. By far the biggest contingent -- six of the 15 -- were the ''energy guys.'' From Ken Derr of Chevron to Chesley Pruet of Pruet Oil, an independent exploration company from Mississippi, all were as eager to tap the U.S.S.R.'s vast but underdeveloped oil patch as the Soviets were to have their help (see next story). We landed in Moscow after midnight on Sunday and plunged early the next morning into four days of hectic meetings. On our agenda, which included a one-day excursion to Leningrad, were sessions with practically all the major participants in the historic debates now raging there. Among them were radical reformers, such as Moscow's popular mayor, Gavril Popov, and his Leningrad counterpart, Anatoly Sobchak; the Soviet Union's beleaguered Prime Minister, Nikolai Ryzhkov, and finally, Gorbachev himself. While we encountered deep disagreements over the pace of reform, everyone we met agreed that the U.S.S.R. was in a massive crisis that could be resolved only by sweeping changes. The direction was clear to all -- the Soviet Union had to move from a controlled, command economy to a free and open system driven by market forces. AT NO POINT during our trip was there any discussion of ideology. Though the eyes of Lenin were upon us in almost every meeting, peering from pictures large and small, the word ''Communism'' wasn't mentioned once. ''It's incredible to hear words like markets, profits, capital, and stocks repeated over and over in the halls of the Kremlin,'' observed Lod Cook, chairman of Arco. And yet we were also struck again and again by how little those magic words are understood by the Soviets. At a reception one of them pulled Paine Webber's Don Marron and me aside and asked in a whisper: ''Now, gentlemen, could you please explain to me the difference between profit, revenue, and income?'' Of course, we suffered from some occasional semantic confusion ourselves. For example, during sessions arranged to allow the delegates to meet individually with representatives from their respective industries, we developed a keener understanding of the Soviet interpretation of ''joint venture.'' For many -- not all -- it basically translates into ''how much hard currency are you willing to spend to do business in our country?'' During our frantic first day, we took a lunch break to join Don Kendall as he cut the ribbon at the opening of the first Moscow Pizza Hut. It was amusing to see all these high-priced executives feasting on fast food. Joining us was Anatoly Dobrynin, the former Soviet ambassador to the U.S., with whom Kendall often split a pie back in Washington. Ironically this same restaurant, I learned upon returning to the U.S., was later temporarily shut down, allegedly for health violations, in a power struggle between the radical Moscow City Council and the conservative District Council. Pizza Hut's problems underline just how confusing the political situation is in the U.S.S.R. now. At practically every step during our trip, Bob Mosbacher reminded our Soviet contacts of the obstacles that foreign investors face. Among these are the lack of a clear definition of property ownership and rights; the necessity to be able to repatriate profits; confusion born of the struggle for control between central, republic, and local authorities; and above all, the lack of a convertible ruble. THE SOVIETS assured us at every step that all these issues would be resolved -- ''in time.'' Laws were imminent, they promised, that would protect foreign investments. This pitch usually ended with an observation that went something like this: ''We are loyal people with long memories, and the early bird will surely get the worm.'' Will it? Not in the short term surely. When you see a line like the one outside the new McDonald's in Moscow -- a line that's always four hours long -- you know you're observing a deeply troubled economy. Consumers have almost no spending options beyond meeting basic necessities. We certainly couldn't find anything to buy in the stores. The joke among our group was ''I can tell you've been shopping because you're not carrying anything.'' The photos we'd all seen of long lines of people waiting to buy soap, potatoes, or beets didn't prepare us for the shock of seeing it firsthand. At the same time, the prospect of filling that vast unmet need can set dreams of financial sugarplums dancing in your head. And despite the risks, it's true that the price of entry into the Soviet market is probably lower today than it will ever be again and the range of opportunities is at its broadest. That's why PepsiCo's Kendall argues, ''The time to invest is now.'' If you do decide to proceed, be sure you cover your bases by negotiating with all levels of government -- federal, republic, and local. The highlight of our trip came on the final day, when we met for two hours with Gorbachev. Joining us were Secretary of State Jim Baker and his Soviet . counterpart, Eduard Shevardnadze. When Gorbachev entered the room, it was immediately clear that he was different. He's well tailored, with excellent posture, unlike the slightly unkempt college-professor style typical of the other Soviet officials we visited. He looks you in the eye with a striking intensity. Whereas you sensed the pressure and stress that the others felt, that wasn't so with Gorbachev. As we grappled with the issues, he encouraged a give-and-take, and his sense of humor flashed easily and often. Gorbachev spoke of our mission as ''a U.S. invasion'' -- one that he welcomed. He said he regularly told his people: ''If anything good is to happen in the world, it must be heralded by better U.S.-U.S.S.R. relations.'' He insisted that ''all factions here agree that we must start to move to a market economy'' but then warned that ''to rush is to be irresponsible.'' Without offering specifics, he suggested that the initial emphasis of any new reform must be to stabilize the economy. ''The convertibility of the ruble,'' he added, ''is my highest priority.'' And when we described a pending project that would allow Soviet managers to work at U.S. companies for three to six months for training, he expressed delight: ''Our greatest problem is developing brains and changing the mind-set of our people.'' He's right. But even if that mental shift accelerates -- and we all left feeling that it would -- the economic and social crisis the Soviets face is so big, you can only shudder at its enormity. In particular I found myself filled with sympathy for the ordinary citizens, whom we observed only on the periphery of our high-level whirlwind tour. At one point, standing inside yet another empty shop, I started to wonder: ''Why are all these shelves here? Were they ever full, or were they created only in hope of future bounties?'' And to think that for decades we actually debated which system was better -- Communism or capitalism. To see the results, as I did, is to realize that for 70 years Soviet leaders accomplished one of the great con jobs in history. But they're no longer deluding themselves and their people. That's why I'm convinced that we must find ways to help them. The U.S. -- and the global community -- can only benefit if the U.S.S.R. one day succeeds in developing into a major new trading partner. |
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