(FORTUNE Magazine) – Never mind that America's recession is all but universally acknowledged. A recent FORTUNE sampling of the nation's top CEOs finds that most think their companies are doing just fine, thank you. Though their industries may be in for tough times in the next couple of years, for now these chiefs believe they will outperform the competition. Most think business overall will improve within a year. At their own companies they are about evenly divided over whether to raise or cut ad spending and say they are more likely than not to increase capital outlays in the coming year. As a group they expect to pay higher wages, charge higher prices, and earn greater profits. But before you go away reassured, hear this: They harbor serious qualms about the long-term future. This is the gist of FORTUNE's latest CEO poll. The opinion research firm Clark Martire & Bartolomeo interviewed 202 chief executives of FORTUNE 500 and Service 500 corporations between December 4 and December 13. The assessment of FORTUNE's economists is that, barring war, this recession will be mild and fairly short. The CEOs seem to reinforce that view. Business is good, say 39%, while another 23% say it is very good and 9% call it excellent. Not bad for a recession. It's easy to forget that strong performers remain in every industry. Just listen to Richard H. Deihl of H.F. Ahmanson & Co. of Los Angeles, owner of America's largest savings and loan: ''The S&L industry is a disaster, but from a company's point of view we are probably sounder than we were five years ago.'' About a quarter of the CEOs surveyed say their business is fair, and just 5% say it is downright poor. Of those in these two groups, most expect business to improve in less than a year, and only 4% predict a wait of more than two years. Howard C. Humphrey of Franklin Life Insurance foresees an upturn in the second half of 1991 because ''we don't have the inventory buildup that would keep us from coming back. Also, exports will help.'' The CEOs in general seem gloomier about their industries' prospects than about their companies' status. While 32% characterize their own companies' performances as very good or excellent, only 20% describe their industries' outlook the same way. Similarly, 29% call the performances of their companies fair or poor, while 37% see such a future for their industries. Why the bleakness? And how can one's own company breathe easy while the industry is sneezing? Answers given vary widely from industry to industry; international sales, recession-resistant domestic markets, and fiscal conservatism back in wilder times are a few of the more frequent explanations. Stanley Gault of Rubbermaid attributes his company's stellar performance to just plain ''outworking'' his competitors. Most CEOs say uncertainty in the Middle East is adding to recessionary ( pressure. Frank Wobst of Huntington Bancshares paints the picture this way: ''Until some of the uncertainty concerning the Mideast war is resolved, consumers as well as business will continue to sit on the sidelines before spending money.'' You can't blame them. While most wars have spurred economic growth in the short run, a conflagration in the Mideast would bring the depressing effect of higher oil prices without the added military production most conflicts require. These CEOs are behaving with mild caution, planning no sharp cuts in major categories of corporate spending this year. Slightly more of them expect to reduce advertising than plan to increase it, bad news for ad-supported media, which are already in a squeeze. Capital spending looks healthier, with 38% of the chiefs planning to raise it and 27% saying they will lower it in 1991. Increasing either type of expenditure can be a powerful weapon in a recession, if you can afford it. Competitors who can't match you will pay the price for a long time. Rubbermaid's Gault, for example, is looking ahead to the recession's end and plans to increase capital outlays. Says he: ''Capital spending is important as the basic foundation for perpetuating growth.'' Where will spending really climb? Wages, they say; 91% of the CEOs expect an increase this year. While these plans sound upbeat, note that since many large corporations have substantial foreign operations, they could increase spending without necessarily influencing the U.S. economy. Some companies have shifted outlays from the U.S. to healthier markets. John Bryan of Sara Lee says, ''We have moderated spending in the U.S., because if you have a scenario that says the U.S. is going slow, then it is a good idea to pay attention to other markets.'' The CEOs are optimistic about their companies' bottom lines: 82% expect profits to hold steady or increase in 1991. Regardless of how they feel about their companies or industries, the CEOs are virtually unanimous in considering the economy plagued. What's the trouble? The primary culprit comes through loud and clear, with 47% saying the federal deficit is the most serious problem facing the economy. Joseph F. Paquette Jr. of Philadelphia Electric sees the situation this way: ''I don't feel the President has done a sufficiently good job in working with Congress. He was outmaneuvered. Taxes will rise, but the deficit will not go down. Spending must be cut.'' James Dresher of York Holdings, a maker of industrial equipment in York, Pennsylvania, says, ''I can't imagine a more serious issue than getting the budget in control. If we don't, we're looking at disaster.'' The evil of the deficit, most CEOs say, is not that it directly hurts the economy but that it contributes to a widespread feeling that the nation is down and out. Words like ''uncertainty'' and ''fear'' recur whether they're talking about the Mideast, the media, or Congress. The Conference Board, an independent business and economic research organization, recently announced that its December consumer confidence index stood at 61.3, vs. 113 a year ago and 85.6 four months ago. Richard Zimmerman of Hershey Foods says, ''The economists have been laying a carpet of gloom and doom, and consumers have been walking on it. It is difficult to be bullish on the economy given the situation in the Middle East.'' Harry G. Hohn of New York Life Insurance adds, ''We haven't solved the problem ((of the deficit)), and you don't seem to find decisive leadership around. People are saying, 'What can we do about it?' People have lost hope.'' While the deficit seems to have gathered the most concern, talk with the CEOs and you'll sense that something else troubles them. Variously expressed, it boils down to a lack of public confidence in the institutions of business and government. Some 9% think a lack of government leadership is the most serious problem facing the economy -- not a huge proportion, but combine it with those who cite lack of consumer confidence, concern over the banking system, excessive regulation, and high taxes, and you find that 35% believe that in some way poorly led institutions are the economy's root trouble. That could mean big headaches in the long run. In general, the CEOs combine specific and firm optimism about the near term with vague and deep worry about the future further out. Winston R. Wallin of Medtronic makes this sad assessment: ''We're a country that has kind of lost its way.'' Many of his peers agree, even if they don't expect that fact to hurt the economy just yet.

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