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MAKING YOUR WAY THROUGH THE STOCK MARKET MINE FIELD
(FORTUNE Magazine) – With economic recovery on the horizon, there are terrific opportunities in the stock market. There are also plenty of land mines. If a company disappoints even a little, KABOOM! -- the stock gets clobbered and shareholders suffer. Dicey technology companies, shaky banks, even some old-line food companies are dropping earnings bombs lately, leading investors to wonder whether anything is safe. As always, there are plenty of low-risk stocks, like utilities, where the chance of a disappointment is low. But most of these fail-safe shares offer little in the way of growth. The challenge today is to find companies with high growth potential that will deliver the goods. That's a tall order. Explosions of bad news are likely to keep up, even as the economy recovers. ''Coming out of this recession is going to be tougher than usual,'' says Chuck Clough, chief investment strategist for Merrill Lynch. Clough believes excess capacity in some industries will make it difficult for many companies to raise prices as they usually do during a recovery. That will lead to earnings disappointments. Also, he says, after all the restructuring of the past decade, American companies are limited by the degree to which they can cut costs to raise profits. (For Fortune's outlook on profits, see Forecast.) To avoid disappointments, Clough advises looking for companies with strong unit sales growth. These, he says, will be among the few to exceed analysts' expectations. The best candidates are companies with strong niche positions in their industry. Avoid outfits with little control over pricing, such as those in commodity-oriented businesses like paper products. Though these companies could enjoy bumper earnings in the coming year, the chance of a shortfall is too great. One sweetheart of a stock that should have no problem producing eye-catching profit gains this year is Charming Shoppes, a chain of women's apparel stores headquartered in Bensalem, Pennsylvania. Steven Ashley, an analyst with Cleary Gull Reiland & McDevitt, a Milwaukee brokerage, likes the company's low cost structure: ''Most of what Charming Shoppes sells is its own label.'' Analysts recently pumped up the company's 1991 consensus estimate 8% to $1.02 per share, almost 29% above last year. Chipmaker Intel continues to dazzle investors with strong earnings. More hot numbers are expected, with Wall Street looking for 27% growth this year. ''Over the years, Intel has been a stock we have liked and not liked,'' says Provident National Bank's equity research director, John Bye. ''Right now we are big fans.'' He points out that demand for the company's high-end 386 and 486 chips has held up well in the weak PC market because customers are buying more sophisticated machines. Intel faces increasing competition from companies that are cloning its proprietary 386 integrated circuits, but analysts believe it can combat this threat with its new, higher-performance 486 chip. For highfliers, biotech stock Amgen may appeal. Thanks to blockbuster drugs like Epogen, for anemia, and Neupogen, to stimulate the immune system, analysts expect Amgen to register powerful earnings growth over the next several years. Despite an arbitrator's award of $164 million to Johnson & Johnson in connection with a patent dispute, Amgen's earnings should rise from a 25-cent-per-share loss in fiscal 1989 to an estimated $3.31 profit this year. Another stock that seems sure to log strong earnings gains is FHP International, a large HMO that operates in the West. Membership growth continues in the double digits as companies and individuals seek less expensive medical care. ''FHP utilizes its high-tech medical equipment much more efficiently than a hospital, and it continues to gain market share,'' says Merrill's Clough, who recommends the stock. Boston Acoustics, which makes high-quality stereo speakers, is drawing rave reviews from money managers. Barry Ziskin, president of Ziskin Asset Management in Mesa, Arizona, calls it one of America's finest growth companies. ''Boston Acoustics speakers combine quality and value,'' he says. ''The company is expert at manufacturing its products.'' Ziskin points out that it has a 23% return on assets, compared with less than 3% for the S&P 500, because of high profit margins and no debt. That's music to the market's ear. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: JIM MCMANUS FOR FORTUNE CAPTION: SAFE STOCKS WITH LOTS OF POTENTIAL HOW TO AVOID THE EXPLOSIONS Steer clear of commodity producers and technology stocks, where earnings shortfalls are most common. |
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