|
NEWSLETTERS THAT PICK WINNING PORTFOLIOS
(FORTUNE Magazine) – It won't surprise you that many of the 400 or so investor newsletters aren't worth the price of a subscription, which can run $500 or more a year. Mark Hulbert, editor of the monthly Hulbert Financial Digest, tracks the performance of the model portfolios of some 130 newsletters. Since he began publishing 11 years ago, only five of the 21 with that long a track record have actually beaten the market as measured by the broad Wilshire index of stocks. The winners of Hulbert's latest tally for the best five- and ten-year total returns are shown above. Most newsletter editors, starting with king of the hill Martin Zweig of the Zweig Forecast, use computerized screening to select stocks with strong earnings growth, a rising share price, and a low P/E ratio. But that's only half of Zweig's strategy. Choosing when -- and how -- to invest is critical. On the day of the October 1987 crash, Zweig's model portfolio gained 9% because he had bought puts on the market indexes. Today, the recent rapid drop in interest rates is one reason he recommends a ''moderately bullish'' 77% position in stocks. Zweig, who has 15,000 paid subscribers -- a lot more than most -- also directly manages $5 billion. Similar techniques guide Dan Sullivan of the Chartist, Louis Navellier of MPT Review, and Jim Collins of OTC Insight. Right now Sullivan suggests a 78% weighting in stocks. Unlike most of his peers, Sullivan has over $400,000 invested in his 16 best buys. (Amgen represents 10% of his holdings.) ''When you put your money on the line, you become very objective,'' he says. MPT Review recommends some 200 large and small stocks; OTC Insight concentrates on 100 over-the-counter selections. The model portfolios of both are always fully invested. Navellier currently favors paper companies like Wausau Paper and Federal Paper Board. Collins likes Employee Benefit Plans of Minneapolis, which designs self-funded health plans. In contrast to these computerized gurus, the editors of Value Line Investment Survey, Growth Stock Outlook, and California Technology Stock Letter wade knee-deep into fundamental research. For its company reports alone, Value Line, first published in 1931, is the individual investor's bible. Four times a year the firm puts out a detailed one-page analysis of each of the 1,700 stocks it covers. The service evaluates a company's ability to survive a temporary business setback, and the likelihood that its stock will outperform the market over the next six to 12 months. A weekly summary includes a market overview that currently calls for a 50% to 60% weighting in stocks. For his model portfolio, editor Charles Allmon of Growth Stock Outlook first sorts the 100 stocks he follows into five rankings according to expected performance, then selects from among those in the top two groups. He concentrates on companies with consistent sales growth over four years. Right now his top stock picks number only 20; they include American Family, whose subsidiary sells supplemental cancer insurance, and Arnold Industries, a trucking company. Says Allmon: ''I follow a lot of great companies. But trading at multiples of 24 or 25 times earnings, most are priced too high.'' He's serious. He has largely stayed out of the market since 1987, and his current portfolio has a whopping 82% in cash. California Technology Stock Letter, first published in 1982, covers small, fast-growing high-tech companies that Wall Street often overlooks. Co-editor Michael Murphy isn't afraid to buck the big guys. Says he: ''The Street knocks stocks because they produce disappointing quarterly earnings. We look at what we call 'growth flow,' which means earnings plus research and development. R&D costs can hurt current earnings, but they drive growth.'' Murphy is particularly keen on the biotech company Cetus, which has agreed to merge with Chiron in a stock-for-stock swap. He expects Cetus's Interleukin-2, an anticancer drug, to be approved by the FDA in November for treating kidney cancer. If using mutual funds for market timing is your bag, check out the Telephone Switch Newsletter and the Mutual Fund Strategist. Both select no- or low-load growth funds for their equity basket, and advise subscribers whether to be 100% invested or 100% in cash. Right now both are fully invested in stock funds. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE TABLE/SOURCE: HULBERT FINANCIAL DIGEST CAPTION: TOP TEN-YEAR PERFORMERS. . . . . .AND THOSE LEADING OVER FIVE YEARS |
|