HOW TO HELP THE SOVIETS The key is to clear the way for a surge in private investment that could dwarf the Marshall Plan.
By Ann Reilly Dowd

(FORTUNE Magazine) – START BY ASKING a question often ignored by Western analysts: What do the Soviets really want? ''The main measures that need to be taken to stop a collapse all lie on our side,'' says Grigori Yavlinsky, 39, the man in charge of devising the Soviet economic recovery plan. Yavlinsky urges the West to withhold most aid for at least a year to give his country time to forge a new government and to put in place crucial reforms such as property rights and a convertible currency. So George Bush is right to ignore calls, led by the Germans, for huge infusions of government-to-government cash now. Says Nikolai Petrakov, Mikhail Gorbachev's former chief economist: ''Money given to a government, whether it's Gorbachev's or Yeltsin's, will only go to support the bureaucracy. What we need most of all is to create conditions to make it interesting for business to invest capital here.'' This is where stronger American leadership is called for -- clearing a path for a surge of private investment that could eventually dwarf even the official aid granted to Europe by the Marshall Plan. To do that, Bush first needs to shelve his cautious ''no, buts'' and ''maybes,'' and replace them with a ringing declaration of America's willingness to do all it can, as long as the Soviets help themselves. Here are four steps that would then go a long way toward fulfilling the U.S. side of this new partnership. -- Help get them through the winter. While no one expects a disaster on the scale of Ethiopia or Bangladesh, serious shortages of food and medicine across much of the former U.S.S.R. are likely. Warns Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International: ''Symbolism now is very important. We don't want the first winter under non-Communist rule to be associated with hunger.'' Already Bush has approved $315 million in loan guarantees to allow the Soviets to purchase U.S. grain. Because risk-averse Western banks are still balking, most of the grain remains in silos. A top Bush adviser says the White House is now leaning toward simply buying food and shipping it to Russia directly. But enticing the bankers to act by making those loan guarantees more generous would be less costly. Russian reformers also prefer self-reliance. Says St. Petersburg Mayor Anatoli Sobchak: ''I'd rather buy the food we need than bring it in as charity. The important thing is that people spend their own money -- even at a subsidized price -- to begin to feel like owners.'' -- Share American expertise. Bush has sent several high-level missions of business and government executives to the Soviet Union to offer advice and encourage joint ventures. Why not build on that fine start with something more permanent and visionary, something like a Capitalist Corps, fashioned after the Peace Corps, that would bring U.S. businessmen to Soviet enterprises and put Soviets in U.S. companies or schools? Says Donald Kendall, chairman of PepsiCo's executive committee and one of the first to crack the Soviet market: ''What the Soviets need most is practical managerial help.'' -- Speed Soviet membership in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. No organizations are better equipped to monitor the health of the Soviet economy, track the progress of its reforms, and -- when appropriate -- extend financial aid. One of the keys to attracting private investment will be establishing an IMF-backed stabilization fund to ease the shift to a convertible ruble. The Bush crowd has expressed support for membership but mainly stresses how lengthy the process can be. Stop the foot dragging, urges Jeffrey Sachs, the Harvard economist who helped Poland dash toward a market economy: ''We should be saying we want the World Bank and the IMF to go to Moscow and start discussions on what to do -- right now.'' -- Eliminate U.S.-imposed barriers to trade and investment. Congress should take Bush's advice and quickly grant the Soviets ''most favored nation'' status. This will clear the way to expanding trade by cutting tariffs on Soviet exports to the U.S. More important, MFN status would enable U.S. businessmen to take advantage of Export-Import Bank trade credits and to buy & risk insurance on investments there through the Overseas Private Investment Corp. Most of these changes take time, of course, which is why the Administration needs to stop hesitating and get moving. With the stakes this high, it's prudent to be bold.