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COMMODORE: GROWTH AT A DISCOUNT
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Want a high-growth stock selling at a modest price/earnings multiple? Try Commodore International, the $1-billion-a-year maker of personal computers. Its shares have been held back by dismal quarterly earnings. In its first fiscal quarter, ended September, revenues were flat and profits slipped to $5.3 million from $7 million. So where's the growth? Strip away the negative effects of currency translations, and revenues are increasing at a 30% annual rate, with profits up at least as much. First-quarter unit sales of its Amiga line of computers, which make up more than half the company's sales, increased 40% from a year earlier, and even its C64 computer, a relic of the early 1980s, managed a 6% increase. Most of the growth came from Europe, where the company takes in 85% of its sales. Currency losses are real enough, but if the dollar stabilizes, which analysts expect, Commodore's earnings will soar. In a market where fast-growing computer companies, like Dell Computer or Silicon Graphics, sell at P/Es of 15 or more, Commodore's stock trades at $13.88, or nine times 1991 earnings of $1.54 per share and only 6.5 times expected 1992 earnings of $2.15 per share. Commodore comes up cheap by yet another gauge: Computer growth stocks typically sell at or above the company's sales per share, but Commodore trades for only 46% of that figure. Commodore's European success continues. Throughout the Continent, the company's products enjoy strong brand recognition and solid distribution channels. Notes analyst Mark Stahlman of Alex. Brown & Sons: ''In some European countries Commodore is better known than Apple.'' As word of Commodore's European success gets around, U.S. investors should be more willing to accord the stock a higher P/E. Commodore's big seller in Europe is the Amiga, which is renowned for being easy to use. ''The Amiga is the ultimate hacker's machine,'' says Stahlman. ''It's very popular among teenage German boys. They're learning more computer science than American teenagers, and they prefer this machine because it's great fun to take apart.'' Want another attraction? Says Stahlman: ''It's an awesome game machine.'' Commodore stands to score big sales gains in Eastern Europe with its C64 model, says Ronald Opel, an analyst with Fechtor Detwiler in Boston. ''It's a $200 entry-level computer,'' he says. ''You can hitch it to a TV set and get real computer performance. It's a great value.'' Longer term the company has high hopes for a new product called CDTV. It allows users to interact with multimedia programs, whether to improve their golf swing or to study Vivaldi through text and pictures while listening to his music. ''The company is really quite healthy,'' says Opel. ''When the dollar weakens, and it will, the stock is going to go up like a rocket.'' |
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