COMPANIES TO WATCH
By SHELLEY NEUMEIER

(FORTUNE Magazine) – VANS Michael Jordan might be pretty cool, but do you really want to drop $130 for a pair of sneakers? Doesn't $40 sound more like it? That's the psychology that analyst Alice Ruth of Montgomery Securities thinks will make Vans shoes appeal to back-to-basics consumers of the Nineties. At least 70% of athletic-shoe purchasers just use them for loafing around, anyway. Made of canvas, suede, or velvet, with rubber bottoms, Vans go for $29 to $54, vs. $50 to $130 for a pair of Nikes. Since Montgomery Securities took the company public in August at $14 a share, the stock has climbed to $24.75, 17 times Ruth's fiscal 1993 earnings estimate of $1.43. She thinks there's still money to be made in the stock, given the company's bouyant growth prospects. Earnings will double over the next year, she predicts, hitting $13.7 million for the fiscal year ending in May 1993, on $109 million in sales. Unlike most footwear companies, which produce their goods in China, South Korea, or Malaysia, Vans makes its shoes in the U.S. Attractive as this may be to the ''Buy America'' camp, the real glory of onshore manufacturing is in what it does for inventories. Give Vans 19 days, and it will put any shoe it makes in your store -- from basic black canvas (its best-seller) to wild purple plaid. Most companies need six months to fill custom orders. The short cycle allows retailers to sell more of what's hot when it's hot. It also keeps inventories lean and virtually eliminates those margin-shrinking end-of-season discounts. While geography accounts for most of the company's speed, an innovative manufacturing system also boosts productivity. Vans organizes its non-union factory workers into teams and gives each a daily quota; when the quota is filled, the team members go home, paid for eight hours even though the work usually takes less time. The teams minimize the need for expensive managers; only three of them are needed to supervise 1,700 factory workers. Vans sells its shoes at 68 company-owned stores in California and through a nationwide network of retailers including Nordstrom, Athlete's Foot, and Foot Locker. Despite a sluggish California economy, same-store sales at the company-owned outlets climbed 12% in the first half of fiscal 1992.

SPECTRAN The growing popularity of optical fiber is lighting up results for this Sturbridge, Massachusetts, company. SpecTran's ''multimode'' fiber, manufactured under licenses from AT&T and Corning, connects computer equipment within a building or between buildings -- configurations known as local area networks. Data whip through SpecTran's hair-thin strands of glass at the speed of light, giving users greater capacity than they can get with copper wiring, the standard alternative. As local area networks proliferate, so do SpecTran's profits: Mark Hassenberg of Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette estimates that the company's income more than tripled in 1991 to $3.1 million, as revenues grew 55% to $16.3 million. The stock recently closed at $22, 22 times Hassenberg's 1992 earnings estimate of about $1 a share. Until recently optical fiber and the electrical equipment necessary to make it work were too expensive for most businesses to consider. But as prices drop and communication systems become more data intensive, the economics of glass fiber are starting to make sense. SpecTran has reduced its own costs threefold since 1985 and is well positioned to take advantage of the current pickup in demand.

MOLECULON This Elizabeth, New Jersey, company combats the medical cost epidemic by peddling pills and potions on the cheap. Moleculon, 67% owned by the Australian drug company F.H. Faulding (1991 revenues: $694 million), develops generic drugs and sells them under the Purepac name, usually for 30% to 50% less than the comparable branded product. Last year most of the company's growth and half its $52 million in sales came from the introduction of nifedipine, the generic version of Procardia, Pfizer's hugely successful heart drug. Ron Opel of Fechtor Detwiler in Boston thinks sales will advance this year to $70 million, bringing earnings up 34% to $11 million. The stock recently closed at $16.25, 25 times Opel's 1992 earnings estimate of 64 cents a share. To keep itself from getting hooked on one drug, the company has several other products in development, ten of which are awaiting FDA approval. CEO Michael Ashton is also eyeing acquisitions of niche drugs; capital from Faulding should help him in this quest. Meanwhile, Faulding is developing sustained-release formulas that allow drugs to be absorbed by the body at regular intervals. Ashton believes access to this technology will help Moleculon distinguish its generics from the rest of the pack.