(FORTUNE Magazine) – The University of Iowa political stock market, where faculty, students, and other investors bet real cash on political candidates, picks George Bush to win four more years in the White House come November. Bush will get 53% of the vote, vs. 47% for the Democratic nominee -- Bill Clinton. As the chart shows, the day after Super Tuesday the Hawkeye traders considered Clinton's race against Paul Tsongas all but won. (For more on the Democratic contest, see Politics & Policy.) Don't dismiss the Iowa forecast out of hand. In the past it has predicted presidential and congressional results far more accurately than the public opinion polls. On election eve in 1988, for example, Gallup picked Bush over Dukakis by 12%, Harris by 4%, and the Iowa poll by 7.6%. The actual result: Bush, by 7.76%. Claims Bob Forsythe, head of the economics department at Iowa's business school and one of four professors who created the market in 1988: ''We're more accurate because we ask people to put money where their mouth is.'' Here's how the Iowa market works: Traders put up at least $5, although many of the 370 investors have staked much more (biggest bet: $500) and volume has reached $11,000. Trading is on two exchanges. One tracks the Dems' fight for the nomination. Each share in the winner pays a $1 dividend after the July convention. An investor who bought seven shares of Clinton at 65 cents each back in January, for example, is now looking at a paper profit of $2.34. The other market is for the race for the White House and includes the Democrats plus Bush. Sorry, Buchanan fans, Iowa never offered any stock in him. As in a real stock market, the temptation is to look for undervalued stocks. By selling one share of Clinton, an investor could buy 88 shares of Jerry Brown. So if he wins the nomination, that's $88 dollars in the bank. Investors who are still holding shares in Harkin, Kerrey, et al. would make even more in the unlikely event of comebacks. For now, Forsythe combines the results of the two markets to predict Bush's November win. After the Democratic convention traders will play only the presidential market. Final payout: a penny per percentage point of popular vote received. - R.T.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE CHART CAPTION: A DOW FOR DEMS Investors came back to Clinton after the New Hampshire primary.