(FORTUNE Magazine) – Like Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton surely got a hearty bounce from his surprisingly unacrimonious New York City convention. But no one in the Clinton camp is taking his lead in the polls for granted, particularly with Ross Perot out. Says the nominee's chief strategist James Carville: ''At this stage in a presidential race, you normally have 20% of the electorate at play. This time, over 60% are up for grabs. It's the most dynamic election in my memory. I'm scared all the time.'' And for good reason. The Democrats' share of white male voters is small (see chart), and the party fears that those who had flocked to Perot will go to the GOP in November. Says Al From, president of the Democratic Leadership Council and an architect of the Clinton strategy: ''The notion that Democrats enjoy an enormous base is a fantasy. At best, African Americans and white liberals represent 27% of the electorate. That's not enough to win. We need a 51% strategy aimed at the forgotten middle class.'' The party's strategy, a sound one, is to target the broad middle class, largely in the suburbs, where for the first time this year a majority of the electorate lives. The Democrats hope to portray Clinton as the only reasonable agent of change, their watchword in the '92 campaign. Hence the choice of fellow middle-of-the-roader Senator Al Gore as Veep, an uncharacteristically moderate party platform, and a convention that highlighted pro-choice women candidates in what could turn out to be the year of the woman voter. Maybe ever more important, Clintonites want voters to see him as a seasoned leader dedicated to economic growth. But Clinton's economic program, while innovative in some areas, includes little to slow the overall growth of federal spending or substantially reduce the deficit. Bush strategists could capitalize on this, painting Clinton as another tax-and-spend liberal. Expect more bimbo baiting too.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE CHART/SOURCE: PAUL ABRAMSON CAPTION: Dem's share of white male voters