(FORTUNE Magazine) – WHAT of Asia's basket cases -- the countries of the war-wracked region formerly known as Indochina, and repressive Burma, which now calls itself Myanmar? Put your money on Vietnam. Yes, Vietnam. But don't expect a democratically elected government. Pursuit of the good life, coupled with poverty -- by the year 2000, some 80 million Vietnamese will have a projected annual per capita income of $500 -- is likely to head off political turmoil and keep the communists in power almost by default. Says Philippe Annez, a World Bank official for the region: ''If your household has few pots and pans, you can't afford to have fights. Vietnam cannot afford strife.'' Adds Do Duc Dinh, an economist at Hanoi's Institute of World Economy: ''People now want better subsistence, better clothing, and better housing. So if the party can meet these basic expectations in the next few years, they are assured the people's respect.'' That's a big if. Failure to deliver the basics crippled and ultimately toppled communist regimes in Europe. But the Vietnamese government has made progress with economic reforms, called doi moi, or renovation, that have loosened state controls and created opportunities for entrepreneurs. Since laws governing foreign investment were relaxed four years ago, Taiwan, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, Britain, and other countries have promised to put some $3.4 billion into the country. About 50% is for oil exploration. Much of the rest will go to mining, fisheries, light industries, and tourism, including new hotels. Exports, primarily oil, rice, and processed fish products, reached $1 billion by the end of June, and annual inflation had dropped from a high of 800% in 1988 to 13%. This success is remarkable given the ongoing U.S.-led embargo and the end of all assistance from the former Soviet Union. Says Nguyen Xuan Oanh, a Harvard- educated business consultant in Ho Chi Minh City (still known locally by its former name, Saigon): ''I think the government is trying to do the best it can to build a launching pad. The economy should be able to take off by the year 2000.'' The state will continue to dominate the economy, especially oil. Vietnam may have its own refinery, capable of processing some 95,000 barrels a day, by the end of the decade. But the private sector, often in partnership with the government, will grow stronger. Semiprivate Vietnamese companies already make clothing and foodstuffs, and even assemble TV sets. Stock exchanges are set to open in Hanoi and Saigon late in the decade. They may well prove popular with Vietnamese investors but likely will be too risky and restricted for most foreigners. The U.S. Congress, still mesmerized by the notion that American soldiers may yet be captives in Vietnam, is showing no signs of lifting the embargo. But since various Western countries, along with most of those in the Pacific Rim, ignore the sanctions, the big losers are U.S. companies that would like to invest there. Vietnam estimates that it needs $20 billion to $30 billion in investment by 2000, much of it to rebuild infrastructure. Although Japan respects the embargo, its companies have done their footwork and are poised to move in as soon as it is lifted. They could be the big winners. The future is far gloomier for Vietnam's neighbors. With a population that will reach ten million by 2000, Cambodia will still be a mess. Continuing political chaos will allow powerful Phnom Penh families to control much of the economy, such as it is. Thai companies will be the dominant foreign investors, especially in get-rich-quick businesses like tourism and real estate. Laos, with an estimated population of five million, will have changed little by the turn of the century. Two bridges that are to span the Mekong River from Thailand will open the country to more tourism and commerce but will also lead to a more rapid depletion of forest land, Laos's most precious natural resource. Historically a backwater, Laos will stay that way. Burma, or Myanmar, has two ways to go. It just might become a rival to Vietnam, vibrant with activity and potential -- or it will remain Southeast Asia's most backward country. Ne Win, now 81, the general whose Burmese Way to Socialism, launched in 1962, has brought the country to economic disaster, might be dead. But his successors will likely come out of the powerful military. If the next strongman loosens economic controls, Burma could take off. More likely, generals will continue to mismanage well into the next century. Most worrisome is Burma's potential for a replay of a brutal civil war like Yugoslavia's. The population, 51 million by 2000, comprises dozens of ethnic groups. A handful of them have been fighting for autonomy since 1948, when Burma won independence from Britain.