(FORTUNE Magazine) – Economist J. Paul Horne of Smith Barney calls it the ''phenomenon of the disappearing recovery.'' Throughout the world, growth rates confidently projected in the first half of 1992 are having the stuffing knocked out of them in the second. Consumers just aren't doing their thing. Uncertainty is everywhere, reinforced most recently by yet another breakdown in the frequently delayed Uruguay Round of trade talks. This failure of world cooperation comes on the heels of the September ructions in European currency markets. The bill for it: as much as $100 billion annually in lost trade. Here's the outlook for America's major trading partners -- few of whom can afford to lose billions in trade.

-- CANADA ! Aside from the national euphoria over the Toronto Blue Jays playing in their first World Series, Canadians have little to celebrate. The country is tearing itself apart again over the question of national unity and whether Quebec will have special status in the federation. It is too soon to tell what effect the unity vote is having on the economy. In the short run, the country's problems have more to do with U.S. trade. Says Aron Gampel, an economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia: ''Canada's trade with the U.S. is our lifeline.'' Despite five consecutive quarters of growth, the economy is still stagnant and unemployment is more than 11%, reflecting sluggishness south of the border. But next year demand is expected to pick up in the U.S., which means an increase for Canadian exports.

-- EUROPEAN COMMUNITY All indicators have the German economy at a standstill, which is ''precisely what the Bundesbank has been looking for,'' says Paul Horne of Smith Barney in Paris. The growth in the money supply and labor costs, two targets of Bundesbank policy, is expected to decline, pushing down inflation. Export demand is weak, so capital spending is drying up. Horne reckons the next several quarters to be pretty flat for Germany, but he does not see its economy sliding into recession. BDI, the German lobbying group representing 34 industries, reports orders are down for auto, clothing, and engineering companies. When the locomotive slows, so does the train. Germany is dragging down the rest of Europe, which exports to it. Most economists expect German interest rates to fall further based on recent declines in money market and bond rates, but the head of the Bundesbank discourages overoptimism in an interview with Fortune (see Money & Markets). Lower German rates would help other EC members ease their own rates and improve economic performance in 1993.

-- JAPAN The bloodletting will continue well into 1993. Manufacturers are cutting capital expenditures and consumers are hanging on to their yen now that workers are receiving fewer bonuses and less overtime. Notes Jesper Koll, chief economist with S.G. Warburg in Tokyo: ''The cash flow squeeze is on.'' And it will stay on. A recent Nikkei poll found that the top 50 employers plan to hire 20% fewer university graduates from the new crop next spring. Though the government is trying to juice up the economy with an $86 billion spending program, the money is going into public works and doing little for $ much of the sluggish private sector. Teikoku Databank, the country's largest corporate information service, reports that bankruptcies in manufacturing, transportation, and telecommunications have risen 85% from 1991. There is talk of layoffs among major companies in the land of lifetime employment. Staff cuts have been announced at Hitachi, Japan Kodak, and Nissan, with more expected next year in steel, autos, chemicals, and retailing. Even so, the 1993 unemployment rate will be an enviable 2.5%. As domestic demand falters, manufacturers are greasing the export machine. ''Tokyo and Washington are on a collision course over the trade problem again,'' says Paul Summerville, senior economist with Jardine Fleming in Tokyo. He expects Japan's overall trade surplus to exceed $100 billion for each of the next two years, and the surplus with the U.S. alone to grow to $45 billion this year and $50 billion next.

-- MEXICO Slower global growth and tighter monetary control by the Bank of Mexico are cooling off one very hot economy. Short-term interest rates now top 19%, and consumers are backing out of the stores. Even so, for the first seven months of the year imports grew by 30%. As consumer buying wanes, that impressive expansion may slow, but, says Mauro Leos, economist at Ciemex-WEFA, ''compared to other markets, Mexico's performance will be attractive in 1993.''

-- NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZING ECONOMIES Pity the poor South Koreans, who will have to get used to living with less than double-digit expansion for the 1990s. Last year the government raised interest rates and rationed credit to lower the thermostat and create a more sustainable 6% growth rate. The result is a slowdown in construction and retail sales. One analyst observed how few shoppers were preparing for the Autumn Moon Festival in September, when gifts are traditionally exchanged. In prior years, merchants saw sales rise 20% to 30% during the period, but this year only 10%. Inter-Asian trade will continue to buoy the region. Says Sean Goldrick of James Capel Inc. in Seoul: ''South Korea is still seeing 10% annual growth in exports.'' Southern Asia has been less affected by the global slowdown than other areas of the world because trade within the region, especially with developing markets in China, Thailand, and Malaysia, is able to replace markets in Europe and the U.S.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE GRAPHIC/SOURCE: CONSENSUS ECONOMICS, LONDON CAPTION: REAL GDP GROWTH