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RETURNING TO SOUTH AFRICA
(FORTUNE Magazine) – It could all come unstuck in one mad moment, but what has happened so far in South Africa is something of a miracle. In October, black leaders will begin sharing power with the white government, gaining some control over the police, army, civil service, and budget. On April 27, the country will hold its first universal-suffrage election. The long-imprisoned chief of the African National Congress, Nelson Mandela, stands to become President. South Africa will be not only Africa's richest nation but also its most democratic one. People of good will -- of all races -- have prevailed and found compromise. The center has held against the violent crazies of the black left and the white right. But don't expect a burst of foreign investment, even when Mandela calls for lifting the last of the trade sanctions. Many of the 160 or so U.S. city, county, and state governments that have enacted their own sanctions against investment in South Africa seem in no hurry to repeal them. They first want to see a multiracial government installed and functioning. And many of the 200 or so U.S. companies that left South Africa in costly haste seem in no rush to return. The ANC is eager to have them back and the jobs they bring -- black unemployment runs 48%. Mandela promises easy repatriation of profits and no hard government controls. His advisers talk of raising taxes on the wealthy (but not so much as to accelerate the flight of skilled whites) and encouraging competition by ''unbundling'' the six conglomerates, led by Anglo American Corp. and DeBeers, that control 84% of the shares on the Johannesburg exchange. South Africa's people -- an estimated 30 million blacks, 5 1/2 million whites, 5 million mixed-race coloreds and Indians -- are eager to buy all manner of goods and services. Companies that want to get in on this market would be wise to set up their offices now, research the basics, and find local partners, especially among South Africa's hundreds of black entrepreneurs. |
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