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TO GET IN ON GROWTH IN ASIA, TRY U.S. COMPANIES ALREADY THERE
(FORTUNE Magazine) – These days fewer Americans seem to care whether their soda comes in a Coke bottle or a Cott can. But in China, Coke still has plenty of moxie -- as do other brand-name biggies that have run head-on into generic competition back home. And while the U.S. is wired, powered, and paved, much of developing Asia remains in the dark. Demand for a solid communications and transportation system is rising. After years of high hopes and false starts, Coca-Cola, AT&T, Westinghouse Electric, Boeing, and a host of other major U.S. companies are finally cashing in on the fast growth of China and its neighbors. With GDP expected to swell 10% next year, China remains one of the world's hottest economies. Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand keep bounding ahead at three or four times the rate of the U.S. and Western Europe. Says Robert G. Heisterberg, global policy analyst at Alliance Capital Management: ''Asia is what this decade -- and much of the next century -- is all about.'' Armchair investors can add some ginger to their portfolios by buying the stocks of U.S. companies active on the Pacific Rim. Some analysts think you'll do even better that way than if you invest in Asian companies directly. ''You get more predictability of earnings, better disclosure, and just as much opportunity for growth,'' says Rod Linafelter, manager of the highflying Berger 100 and Berger 101 funds. Start with the outfits that are helping develop the region's infrastructure. U.S. companies -- downsized, restructured, and surfing on a still cheap dollar -- are lean and ready. Take power generation. While demand for new power in the U.S. sputters along at 2% or 3% a year, Nicholas Heymann, an analyst at NatWest Securities in New York City, estimates that China will need to increase its output of electricity 50% by 1997 and double it by 2003. Westinghouse gets about a third of sales and profits from power-generating equipment like the steam turbines that can spin abundant Chinese coal into energy. Heymann estimates that after 1995 virtually all of the 15% earnings growth he projects for Westinghouse over the next few years will come from outside the U.S. -- much of it from Asia. What about General Electric, another power player? Heymann calls Westinghouse ''the company that will continue to dominate China'' in that field but says GE will make inroads with other products. It plans to pepper developing Asia with appliances, medical equipment, locomotives, and high-tech plastics for cars and construction. Right now, 7% of GE's $60 billion in revenues come from the region; by 2000, Heymann estimates, that share will be 18% or more. Profitability ought to zoom, he says: The 5% of earnings the region now brings in should quadruple by decade's end. GE will also get a lift from China's new interest in air travel. It makes engines for Boeing jets; China's airlines have ordered 62 Boeings, worth $3.7 billion, to add to the 155 they fly today. Says Heymann: ''Without China, Boeing would be flat on its back.'' Next to Japan, Boeing says, China will be the largest buyer of new aircraft from now to 2010, shelling out some $40 billion. China is the world's fastest-growing telecommunications market as well. It has among the lowest rates of ''teledensity'' anywhere: less than one phone line per 100 people, vs. 53 in the U.S. In 1993, AT&T signed five contracts for a total of about $90 million of equipment. For now, China is too small to be more than a blip in AT&T's global revenues of $65 billion. But, says Robert Morris, telecommunications analyst at Goldman Sachs in London: ''It's necessary that they be in China. That's the only market big enough to make a difference in the long run.'' He recommends the stock. For Motorola, by contrast, China is already ringing bells. Many Chinese can't wait to get wired, so they're leaping directly to the cellular age. By one estimate, Motorola's Chinese sales of cellular phones and pagers jumped from $100 million in 1990 to $750 million, or about 5% of total revenue, in 1993. Berger funds' Linafelter thinks both Motorola and Sweden's L.M. Ericsson, which also sells cellular sets in China, are buys at current prices. Says he: ''These guys are going to play a big role in developing a global communications structure, and investors should be there.'' Ericsson ADRs traded recently on Nasdaq at $41. Consumer products companies are actively courting new customers for soda, gum, soap, and toothpaste. Says Michael J. Branca, a NatWest Securities analyst: ''Economies grow from the bottom up. Food and beverages and consumer nondurables are the early beneficiaries of increasing disposable income.'' Coca-Cola was among the first U.S. companies to enter post-revolution China, in 1979; it has the best prospects near-term, but Branca says there's plenty of room for PepsiCo too. He also salivates at what's ahead for makers of humble chewing gum: ''Wm. Wrigley Jr. has explosive growth opportunities outside the U.S., especially in China, because it sells a simple, ubiquitous, low-priced product.'' , Like Coke, Colgate-Palmolive generates more revenue outside the U.S. than in. It has been active in Asia for half a century, and now the region's rising riches are starting to top up the till. Says Craig Tate, who heads Colgate's Asia Pacific region: ''We've been riding the crest of macroeconomic growth in Asia for the past few years. There's still tremendous untapped potential.'' The company teaches brand loyalty early by distributing toothpaste and brushes in grade schools throughout Asia. Stanley Nabi, chief economist at Bessemer Trust in New York City, expects the majority of Colgate's 15% annual earnings growth over the next several years to come from outside the U.S., mostly Southeast Asia and Latin America. Says he: ''I wouldn't own Colgate on domestic growth or on growth from Western Europe. I would own it because it's aggressive in the developing world.'' With all that air travel and sugar-laden soda, you'd expect some of the new consumers to start fearing for their lives. Well, last year American International Group, founded in Shanghai in 1919, got a license to sell life insurance to Chinese citizens. AIG representatives -- local Chinese -- have sold more than 20,000 policies. The company's Asian profits are up 19% a year on average since 1990, vs. 5% at home. Avon deploys its familiar masses-to-masses selling strategy in Asia: It now has 25,000 Avon ladies peddling powder and lipstick in southern China. Robert McCracken, senior vice president for global strategy, calls China ''our No. 1 priority for growth and investment globally.'' McCracken points out that even though Avon has 1.7 million representatives worldwide, people without access to Avon products still outnumber those who do. Finally, when the newly rich in Asia need to get away from it all, they'll have Club Med. The U.S. subsidiary, 72% owned by the French parent, runs resorts in Asia and the Americas. In 1995 it will complete a complex on Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The stock is cheap, battered by disappointing earnings. Marina Carlson, a portfolio manager at Strong Funds, expects results to improve as Club Med concentrates its efforts on the Pacific Rim. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: FORTUNE CHART CAPTION: TEN BACKDOOR CHINA PLAYS |
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