Comfort Stocks Worried about the market? Packaged-food companies are set to grow 12% to 14% a year, regardless of Asia, deflation, or Monica Lewinsky.
By Jeanne Lee

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Psychologists call it "stress eating syndrome." To Freud it was "oral fixation." Whatever it's called, though, you know the impulse: When life turns stressful, you instinctively reach for familiar foods: sweet or salty, crunchy or wholesome, but above all, comforting. Well, in a stock market beset by anxieties about Asia, overcapacity, and deflation--not to mention the job security of the President--an investor might do well to yield to a similar reflex. After all, what could be more reassuring now than the stable cash flow, predictable double-digit growth, and minimal emerging-market exposure offered by the edibles you grew up with, like Campbell Soup and Sara Lee?

We mean it. Packaged-food stocks make an exciting opportunity today precisely because they aren't too exciting. "Asian unrest is good news for the industry on a relative basis," according to analyst John McMillan of Prudential. The S&P food index didn't just beat the market last year (the first time that had happened since 1991); it blew it away by almost ten percentage points. Significantly, most of the advantage was earned in the fourth quarter, as food stocks resisted the Asian typhoon better than the rest of the market.

Analysts expect the average food company to build earnings at an annual rate of 12% to 14%. True, in Silicon Valley or the health-care industry in recent years, that kind of measured gait would be tantamount to recession. But as Nomi Ghez of Goldman Sachs points out, the foods' growth rate is trending up, buoyed by steady demand (Asia won't keep people from cheesecake, after all) and slack prices for agricultural commodities ranging from beef to soybeans. The outlook is less rosy for other blue-chip stocks; in fact, the S&P 500's earnings are projected to grow just 8.5% in 1998. As Ghez puts it, "At the same time that the economy is slowing, food companies' earnings, cash flow, and returns are actually improving."

These virtues have already begun to dawn on Wall Street, which is why, in arriving at our five picks, we rejected some well-run companies as too expensive. The shares of Hershey, for example, jumped 25% in the past three months, driving its price/earnings ratio out of whack with its likely growth rate. We've also excluded Unilever, Nestle, and Ralston Purina, whose relatively high emerging-market exposure gives us less confidence in their earnings outlook.

Hungry yet? Well, then, here is our case for five food stocks that may add some stick-to-your-ribs security to your portfolio.

CAMPBELL SOUP (CPB)

In the early part of this decade, Campbell stock was about as exciting as oversimmered mushroom soup. Investors were driven off by stagnant earnings growth and rumors that its majority shareholders, the Dorrance family, were preparing to sell. They didn't. Instead, they brought in a new CEO, David Johnson, who turned Campbell into an industry leader. The stock's 335% total return since 1990 beat its peers and the market as a whole.

Performance improved so much, in fact, that Campbell has begun to measure itself against a new benchmark. Johnson's successor, CEO Dale Morrison, thinks the company's rightful place is alongside such consumer powerhouses as Coke and Gillette. It could happen. Condensed soups constitute a $3 billion business, with margins estimated to be more than 30%. And Campbell owns three-quarters of it, with no formidable competitors. Domestically, Campbell is paring down, spinning off non-core, less profitable lines like Vlasic pickles and Swanson frozen food in a move that will highlight the impressive margins and strong international growth prospects of the stronger product lines. Besides soup, these include Prego sauces, Pepperidge Farm cookies and crackers, and Godiva chocolates. Morrison is pushing for further growth through new distribution channels, such as drugstores and chains like Wal-Mart, and from innovative new products like the premium Home Cookin' line and fat-free cream soups. Overseas, Campbell is making a big push in Europe, having recently acquired Erasco and Liebig, the top canned soupmakers in Germany and France.

Bear Stearns analyst Terry Bivens calls Campbell Soup "the Cadillac of its group," and it does, in fact, sport a Cadillac valuation of 26.3 times 1998 estimated earnings. (That compares with the S&P 500's multiple of 21.) But the price tag seems reasonable when compared with those of other food and consumer brand-name stocks. For example, Kellogg and Hershey sport comparable P/Es, but they can't match Campbell's growth rate. And Campbell's P/E comes nowhere near those of Coke (40 times 1998 forecasts) and Gillette (34 times), even though Bivens expects higher growth from Campbell than from those two consumer gods. Bivens argues that Campbell deserves a multiple 40% higher than that of the market--which would give it a P/E of 29 today--and thinks the stock will hit $66 within 12 months.

SARA LEE (SLE)

Here's a new-economy phenomenon: a cake company without ovens. Last September CEO John Bryan surprised Wall Street by announcing plans to divest Sara Lee's manufacturing facilities and focus the company purely on marketing. That means it'll still sell cherry cheesecakes but will pay someone else to bake them, just as it will pay someone else to knit its Hanes hosiery, stitch its Wonderbras, and process its Ball Park franks and its Hillshire Farm and Jimmy Dean sausages. This "de-verticalization," as the company calls it, will save money and let Sara Lee focus on managing brands. After all, that's what it does best; 90% of the company's products are No. 1 or No. 2 in their categories. "They look at themselves as a consummate marketer," says Merrill Lynch food analyst Leonard Teitelbaum.

While a food company that doesn't make food is a novelty in the industry, investors have responded enthusiastically. (After all, Nike doesn't make its own clothes.) But analysts are even more intrigued by the $3 billion or more in cash that the divestiture is expected to free up. The company has promised to use this money to buy back shares, a move that should reduce the total pool of shares outstanding by about 12% over the next three years. Some analysts think the float will shrink even more than that. "The odds are pretty good that they will buy back more shares than they are talking about, just based on their cash flow," says Bivens. "They generate so much cash that something's got to give."

FLOWERS INDUSTRIES (FLO)

This pick and the one that follows, International Home Foods, are less well known than Sara Lee and Campbell. But like them, these midsized stocks benefit from the food industry's steady demand and falling raw materials costs. And because they carry a tad more risk, they trade at lower prices and have the potential for more explosive growth. "The biggest money in food stocks is made when a midcap stock emerges as a large cap and gets more widely followed," says John McMillan, an analyst at Prudential.

Flowers Industries is one midcap that's forcing its way onto investors' radar screens. Starting out as a southeastern regional bread and cake company, it went national last year when it bought Mrs. Smith's Pies and took a minority stake in Keebler Foods. This past January, when Keebler went public, Flowers upped its stake to 51% to gain a controlling interest in brands such as Cheez Its, Chips Deluxe, Carr's, Townhouse, and Club crackers. Now with a market cap of around $2 billion, the company is integrating production lines to boost productivity--an effort that has already helped lift gross margins by five percentage points, to 48%.

The Keebler IPO focused attention on Flowers' stock and drove it up to around 26 times earnings. However, the stock is still cheaper than blue-chip foods such as Campbell and Unilever--not bad when you consider that the company is on track to boost earnings two to three percentage points a year faster than the group as a whole.

INTl. HOME FOODS (IHF)

When a company's success depends on shrewd acquisition, the key investment criterion is the person doing the acquiring. For that reason, an investment in International Home Foods is basically a vote of confidence in CEO Dean Metropoulos. The engineer of spectacular turnarounds at Stella Foods and Morningstar, Metropoulos (along with buyout firm Hicks Muse) split IHF off from American Home in November 1996, taking with him a portfolio of trusty trademarks that now includes Bumble Bee, Campfire, Chef Boyardee, Crunch 'N' Munch, Gulden's, Jiffy Pop, Pam, and Polaner All Fruit. Twelve of IHF's 15 brands are leaders in their categories. Since going public in November, the stock has risen from $20 to $27, reflecting Wall Street's confidence in Metropoulos, who owns 7% of the stock.

Metropoulos is expected to follow the same strategy that worked for him at his previous posts: growth through aggressive acquisition. To kick off 1998, for example, he announced that IHF would buy Unilever Canada's Puritan line of canned stews and meats. "IHF is largely an acquisition vehicle for a management with a good track record," says David Nelson, director of research at Credit Suisse First Boston. The company generates $126 million in cash flow, which provides plenty of wherewithal for mergers.

However, the story is also about better management of existing assets. IHF is in the happy position of owning an array of top brands that were relatively neglected by their previous owners. According to analysts, that leaves the company plenty of room to grow. IHF plans to boost profitability by spending more on advertising and by introducing new products under well-known brand umbrellas.

What does it all mean? IHF has established one of the highest returns on capital in the food industry, around 16.1%, and earnings are expected to grow 15% to 20% over the next few years. Nelson fixes a price target of $31 within 12 months. Goldman Sachs' Nomi Ghez calls IHF her "top small-cap pick in the industry."

SPICY FOOD

And finally, a growth-oriented digression from the defensive investing theme: Authentic Specialty Foods (ASFD), the Grand Prairie, Texas-based distributor of Calidad and La Victoria brands of salsa, tortillas, and other Mexican food staples. If you're looking to add some spice to your food stock portfolio, this small-cap is worth a look. Unlike competitors' products, such as Campbell's Pace and Frito-Lay's Tostitos, Authentic's brands are aimed at Mexican Americans. That market includes 10% of the U.S. population--30% in Texas and California--and is growing fast. With a market cap of $100 million, the stock is not widely followed but has caught the attention of John Olinski of Wedbush Morgan Securities, who thinks acquisitions can help it boost earnings 30% a year. Another fan is George Soros, whose Soros Fund Management owns 7% of the company. That ought to give a daring small-cap investor more than a little comfort.

INSIDE: How theme restaurants fooled investors, page 234... Is this market perfect, or what?, page 238... Serwer's fail-safe Internet picks, page 245