(FORTUNE Magazine) – Sure, the words "President Bush" tumble easily from the lips. But the presidential election is 30 months away, and this particular Bush--George W., son of George H.W.--still hasn't won reelection as governor of Texas, let alone competed in a Republican caucus, primary, or culture war. George W. (see "Here Comes the Son") is the most likely to succeed of the Republican presidential wannabes; as the others struggle to develop the ideas that will set them apart, you need a program to keep them straight.

LONG SHOTS

Steve Forbes. The journey from Capitalist Tool to Tool of the Religious Right is a story for all time, or at least for prime time. He has the money to hog the airwaves and probably will.

John McCain. The Vietnam POW is a leading voice on regulating tobacco and reforming campaign finance. His big problem: Democrats don't choose the Republican nominee.

LONGER SHOTS

Lamar Alexander. He's changed his shirts (no red-and-black checks) and his spots (no moderate rhetoric). He's been running for president nearly continuously for almost five years, raising questions about whether he has anything else to do.

Elizabeth Dole. She has a good word to say about everybody and everything, including Viagra. The best politician in the field, she's never run for public office. But she was elected May Queen at Duke, which is one more beauty contest than most of these guys can claim.

Newt Gingrich. Not even his best friends want him to be Speaker again. A presidential bid is a way out and may help him sell books. But as a presidential stud muffin, he's toast.

John Kasich. He has a face like Dennis the Menace and drips with appeal and nervous energy. While it might be fun to watch a Republican run a pro-environment, anti-corporate greed campaign, no House member has been elected to the White House this century.

Jack Kemp. A decaffeinated Kasich. He's been there, done that. But not too well, so Team GOP may ask him to sit out.

Dan Quayle. Tanned and rested, but still not ready.

SHOTS IN THE DARK

John Ashcroft. You've never heard of him. But he's a senator from Missouri, the darling of religious conservatives, and the first lawmaker in Washington to suggest that Bill Clinton lacks the character to be president. Some candidates run on good government. He'll run on good morals. There's a first time for everything.

Gary Bauer. You've never heard of him either. He's also a hero of the religious right, and he's moved the Christian agenda from domestic content (abortion) to foreign policy (religious freedom abroad). Guaranteed to give his competitors fits but not to win any primaries.

Pat Buchanan. You have heard of him. And you'll hear a lot more from him. He doesn't like immigrants or foreign countries. He does like to run for president, which he seems set to do again.

Rudy Giuliani. Although New York City isn't big enough for him anymore, New Hampshire may be too big. If he thinks New Yorkers have bad manners, wait till he attends his first GOP debate in Iowa.

Bob Smith. A devoutly conservative New Hampshire senator, he nonetheless has an eccentric streak. He's the go-to guy if you believe that American money shouldn't be used to send Russian monkeys into space.

Pete Wilson. Advantage: His state has 54 electoral votes, one-fifth the number required to win the election. Disadvantage: Many of California's 32 million people hate his guts. If you think society's ills can be traced to the decline of phonics, Wilson's your candidate.

DAVID SHRIBMAN is Washington bureau chief of the Boston Globe and a Pulitzer Prize-winning political reporter.