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The Impeachment: A Road Map
By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Let's face facts: Most Americans know little and care less about government. Politics has become little more than light entertainment on cable channels. The only time people really notice Washington is when it does something that angers them, and even then they pay attention for only a brief while.

Well, Americans are watching now. An impeachment of a President (not to mention an attack on Iraq) will do that. But what does any of it mean? D.C. has seemed like a foreign capital for so long that we have to reacquaint ourselves with its peculiar customs. Here are some unconventional rules for the strange road ahead:

Big things will be harder to do. With a weakened executive branch, sweeping overhauls of the tax code, the health system, or anything else are out of the question. Indeed, any significant measures that require bipartisan coalition building, like "fast track" legislation for free-trade pacts, are long shots.

Smaller changes, on the other hand, will come easier. Lawmakers will be eager to accomplish something to erase the stain of scandal. So look for a modest tobacco-tax hike with an offsetting token tax cut; a small increase in the minimum wage; and maybe some reining in of HMOs. In general, this trend is good for business, which has the clout and cash to lobby effectively for narrow bills and riders.

Everyone has an opinion, but only the zealots vote. We kept hearing that conscience carried the day on impeachment, but what really mattered was careful nose-counting among select activists. Elections are decided by discrete blocs of people who are so devoted that they dare to do something that most of their neighbors won't: go to the polls. That means that broad surveys of public opinion are meaningless. Any lawmaker who can mobilize the loyalists back home has a fighting chance to survive a controversial vote.

No one knows what will happen to the President. Most people assume he won't be removed from office. (Impeachment was pending at press time.) But what happens if Ken Starr indicts someone close to him? Or if Senate leaders can't arrange a quick trial? On the other hand, impeachment will distress, and therefore energize, Democrats; their coffers will overflow. If you think you can see four months down the road, think again.

But the economy--and the country--will survive. Wall Street cares more about Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan than about Bill Clinton. Uncertainty created by the impeachment could rock the markets for a while. But they will soldier on so long as the dull duo remain at their posts, which, given the jumbled state of things, is likely to be for a very long time.

--Jeffrey H. Birnbaum