No Doubt About It: These Really Are The Good Times
By Andy Serwer

(FORTUNE Magazine) – This may come as a surprise, but I'm not the kind of guy who likes to reflect. Navel gazing? No, thanks. I'd rather do my laundry. But the other day I found myself in deep thought, and I actually hit on some interesting stuff.

Before you think I've gone Tom Peters on you, give me a minute. All I'm saying is that if you take a second and step off the treadmill, you have to admit these are some pretty incredible times we're living in right now. Greatest bull market in history. Low unemployment. Incredible job creation. Budget surplus. Benign interest rates and negligible inflation. The information-technology boom. The Internet revolution. End of a decade. End of a century. End of a millennium! In fact, I would argue that this is the greatest six-month period in our nation's history! Yeah, I know, the market has been dicey, and October is always the cruelest month on the Street--especially this year, with Y2K lunacy (see next item)--but for now, we have got some Good Times. Or should I say, "Dyn-o-mite!"

By the way, let me assure you that this is an apolitical rant. I've had it up to here with President Clinton's "feeling my pain" (or whatever it is of mine he's feeling!), and I suspect he has had about as much to do with the current prosperity as a rooster does with making the sun come up. I think most of the credit here goes to the companies and people in Silicon Valley and other innovation hot zones.

Evidence of this glorious season crosses my desk every minute. The other day I learned that the number of unprofitable companies listed on the NYSE in Q2 1998 was 56. The number in Q2 1999: 35. And this: Through the end of September the S&P 500 is up 3.9%. Sure, that kind of blows, but how about the stocks you actually own, e.g., Morgan Stanley's high-tech 35 index? That's up 39.3%! Meanwhile, dollar volume of IPOs and worldwide M&A are on pace for records. In fact, I could bore you to tears with this stuff, but you get the point.

Then there are the anecdotal details. Fall is always crazy in N.Y.C., but this year is truly frenetic. The streets are jammed with tourists. Morgan Stanley is putting up another skyscraper in midtown (adding space, not moving), and real estate prices are on fuego. Of course, this is happening in the Bay Area (more so!), Seattle, and other hot spots like Austin, Texas, and North Carolina's Research Triangle. But it's not as if industrial and servicey cities like Houston, Nashville, and Chicago are hurting right now. And because our economy is less tied to hard assets, you'll see more pockets of New Economy prosperity as Web entrepreneurs seek workplaces that are cheaper than Palo Alto or Redmond, Wash.

All signs of a market top, you're saying? Hey, nobody knows what will happen. Not me. Not you. Not Abby Joseph Cohen. Could this grind to a screeching halt in a matter of weeks? Sure. Don't forget it was only 12 months ago that we all thought the world was going chop suey. Bottom line: While things may be a little spotty this fall, I think we'll see another big upside move in January. Party on!

Y2K on Wall Street

Listen, I'm as bored by the whole business as you are. I think next to nothing will happen--at least in the U.S.--except that people will change their behavior because of what might happen. As F.D.R. said, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Example: Software companies, the Oracles, PeopleSofts, and SAPs of the world, are going to sell absolutely no product--zip, zero--in Q4, as companies impose a freeze on their IT systems. This could create a huge Q1 2000 for the softies.

How about prescription-drug makers? I hear you should load up on your drugs in December and even November, so computer snafus don't screw up insurance claims. Think what that'll do to drugmakers' Q4 1999 and Q1 2000! As for cash, the feds are suggesting that because people fear ATMs might not work in January, there will be a run on the machines the last couple of days of the millennium. Ergo, you should start hoarding cash in December and November. Sheesh, talk about creating a problem!