Thinking About Tomorrow Predicting what will happen in a dynamic society is always risky. But you can't let the future just happen to you.
By Mark Borden

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Predicting the direction and pace of change in America is clearly not easy. Witness the unfortunate comments of Charles Duell, a former commissioner of the U.S. patent office. In 1899, on the cusp of another new century, Duell pronounced that "everything that can be invented, has been invented." A similar myopia affected the architects of the Empire State Building. They weren't thinking about sheer ornamentation when they designed its art deco cap; it was meant to anchor incoming dirigibles. Even technology leaders often fail to grasp the vision thing. Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., declared in 1977 that "there is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

But to live only in the present and just react to the next wave is folly. Strategy and anticipation of change will always fit into a business model, no matter how fast-paced an industry seems. Says Alvin Toffler, the well-known futurist and co-founder of the consulting firm Toffler Associates: "If you don't have a strategy, you will be permanently reactive and part of somebody else's strategy." The trick, of course, is finding the answers to some key questions: what strategies will be necessary to do business in the next century, what will it take to be a successful 21st-century leader, what industries are likely to blossom in the coming years.

A few things seem certain. With the increased complexity of the world in the Information Age, business leaders are going to have to manage on the edge of chaos--not just the edge of chaos you read about in profiles of Internet companies, but chaos on a global level. "Leaders increasingly have to be able to handle multidisciplinary tasks and are less able to know everything or control everything that's going on," says Toffler director Jae Engelbrecht. In today's business climate, the threat of competition can come from any direction. Says Toffler director Tom Johnson: "You focus too narrowly on the book publishing business, you miss Amazon.com. Focus on cutting costs and competing in the traditional brokerage business, you miss Schwab. Focus on cutting costs in the travel business, and you're not ready for Priceline."

With expanding globalization and increased interconnectivity in the world, tomorrow's leaders will have to expand their horizons continuously and constantly look ahead. A good example is Texaco's CEO, Peter Bijur, who is looking beyond oil by investing in new sources of energy for the post-hydrocarbon era.

For most workers, the notion of a job will probably change profoundly in the next century. It's easy to imagine a large section of the work force toiling away in a freelance capacity. Like the farmers of old, freelancers wouldn't necessarily have a job; they'd just work all day. Today's Internet entrepreneurs are already there.

Plastic surgery, laser vision correction, hip and joint replacement, pacemakers for the heart and brain--all are proof that we live in a bionic world. Throw Prozac, Zoloft, and Viagra into the mix, and you'll get an idea of the breadth that the biotech industry is likely to reach in the next century. Pharmaceuticals companies are already targeting people with "social phobias" like shyness, and anti-obesity drugs like Xenical are flying off doctors' prescription pads. The next phase could lead to drugs that help you concentrate or enhance your brainpower. "It would be unlikely that you wouldn't have things done to your mind," says Engelbrecht.

In the health area, both strange and innovative ideas will no doubt arise. For example, imagine receiving a checkup every morning from your toilet: weight, fat content, sugar levels, vitamin deficiencies, you name it. Now imagine not only that the toilet is linked to a personal computer capable of plotting the data, but also that the data are sent to your doctor or insurance company. Sound far-fetched? Maybe, but Matsushita, the Japanese manufacturer of this "smart toilet," has built the prototype and is ready to deliver the technology. The future is now.