(FORTUNE Magazine) – Few people in Congress are as important to business as the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, the panel responsible for tax, trade, and health-care legislation. As a result, Senator William Roth of Delaware, the committee's current chairman, should be flusher with campaign cash--and therefore more likely to win reelection--than almost any other lawmaker. But he isn't. Election watchers list Roth as one of the Senate's most vulnerable Republicans this year. So strong is his challenge from Democrat Thomas Carper, the state's dynamic young governor, that there's been talk (roundly denied) that Roth, 78, might retire rather than face possible defeat.

While popular, Roth has served in the Senate for 30 years. Carper, 53, was Delaware's only Representative in Congress for ten years before being elected governor in 1992. The Cook Political Report calls the Roth-Carper contest a tossup and notes that Roth has been behind Carper in the polls. Congressional Quarterly writes that there's "no clear favorite" in the race (which is one of the magazine's most precarious categories for an incumbent)--and labels Roth "endangered." While the New York U.S. Senate race between Mayor Rudy Giuliani and First Lady Hillary Clinton will get a lot more ink, there may be no more vital election for corporations than this unexpected barnburner in Delaware.

--J.H.B.