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For Sale: Korean Car Company, Runs Okay
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Eat your heart out, eBay. This month Korea Inc. will auction off a bigger prize than the Internet will ever see--automaker Daewoo Motor. A committee of five Korean executives will recommend one of five bidders--GM, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Hyundai, or Fiat--as rescuer of the bankrupt automaker. The sale of Daewoo Motor is the latest chapter in the company's troubled history. Founded in 1976 as a fifty-fifty partnership between the Daewoo Group and GM, Daewoo became a marriage made in hell when GM balked at investing in the growth rates considered normal for Korean conglomerates. After a bitter split in 1992, Daewoo founder Kim Woo Chong established a slew of joint ventures in the Third World and boosted the company's production capacity to a million units a year. Kim had a lot of luck--all of it bad. The Korean economy tanked in 1998, cutting demand for vehicles by nearly two-thirds. Those Third World ventures generated negative cash flows and prompted heavy borrowing. Saddled with $15 billion in debt it couldn't even begin to service, Daewoo Motor collapsed. The auction won't hinge exclusively on which bid is most financially favorable to creditors. Korean politics and pride will count heavily. Here is an early line on the prospective bidders. --Fiat: The company's Italian market share has tumbled badly; it will be hard-pressed to deploy the muscle for both a home-market rescue and a successful Daewoo turnaround. Its cross-ownership deal with GM provides a better entree into Asia and North America than Daewoo would. Odds: scratch, or joint entry with GM. --DaimlerChrysler: Chairman Jurgen Schrempp wants to build a strong presence in the European minicar segment. How he'll do so remains a mystery. Schrempp green-lighted a small car called Java, but at the end of February he scuttled the project. Three weeks later he acquired an interest in struggling Mitsubishi Motors, which--surprise--has lots of small-car capabilities. Schrempp changes his mind as frequently as he changes his underwear. If he's having second thoughts about Java, then Daewoo may be on his radar. Odds: ten to one, but volatile. --General Motors: GM may have a plan for Asia that includes Daewoo, but if it does, the strategy is unintelligible. GM's earlier intransigence as a Daewoo partner will count heavily against it. Odds: eight to one. --Hyundai: Combining Daewoo and Hyundai would deliver a virtual Korean automaking monopoly to Hyundai Group. With four million units of domestic production capacity, Hyundai would be a global megaforce with as much domestic capacity as Toyota in Japan or GM in the U.S. Korean public opinion is strongly against any foreign owner for Daewoo, and the unions, which have been striking against foreign ownership, are solidly pro-Hyundai. If Hyundai enlists an offshore partner, it may well be the winner. Odds: five to two, and closing --Ford: Since its managerial takeover of Mazda, Ford has transformed large losses into modest profits. But Mazda still isn't big enough to compete effectively in Japan against Toyota. The solution? Merging Mazda and Daewoo could make Ford a serious player in both Japan and Korea. It has to be regarded as the early favorite. Odds: two to one. If Ford and Hyundai make a joint bid, a move Ford seems interested in, their odds drop to even money. --John Schnapp |
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