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Canada's Market Takes Off (You Hoser!)
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Mounties. Maple syrup. Celine Dion. One of the best-performing stock markets in the world year-to-date. Can it be? Our often ignored Canadian neighbors boast all of the above, including the Toronto TSE 300, which has risen a blistering 21.2% this year, compared with the S&P, down 1.5%. Seems like last we looked, Canada was, to put it bluntly, a basket case, with a huge budget deficit and exposure to an ailing Asia (not to mention a defiant Quebec repeatedly threatening to secede). Not anymore. Asia has stabilized, commodity prices have firmed--oil prices alone have nearly doubled in the past year--and the country managed to eke out a fiscal surplus one year ahead of schedule. Plus, Canada's economic conditions are just about ideal right now: Inflation is running a lowly 2.2%, and the economy is expected to grow by 4% this year. Not too shabby, eh? Still, as an investment market Canada gets consistently ignored. "It's an orphan market," explains Rob Reiner, co-head of International Equities for Deutsche Asset Management in New York and co-manager of the International Equity fund, with 3% of its assets in Canada. Most international fund managers use the MSCI EAFE index as a benchmark and weight their portfolios accordingly. Since Canada isn't part of that index (which includes Europe, Australasia, and the Far East), it gets less buzz on Wall Street and in the media. And some of that, admittedly, is due to misperceptions about what exactly goes on in the land up north. "People think that Canada is just a resource market--paper, gas, and forests," says Reiner, but of the top ten companies in the TSE 300 (which make up 54% of the index), not one is a resource company. In fact, tech names have kept the Canadian market surging, with companies like Nortel Networks and JDS Uniphase up 45% and 52%, respectively, so far this year. Nortel itself makes up nearly one-third of the TSE 300. Then there's a host of less flashy stocks, like Montreal-based Bombardier, which makes things like subway cars and--predictably--snowmobiles, and is also the third-largest aerospace company in the world, behind Boeing and Airbus. One of Reiner's favorite picks is Rogers Communications, which owns a slew of radio, TV, magazine, and wireless businesses. The stock is up 17% year-to-date (and Reiner's not the only fan; Microsoft bought a 9.2% stake last year). Another Canadian treasure is Four Seasons. The company, which also includes locations like the Pierre hotel in New York City, has risen 14% this year, buoyed by new resorts and higher average revenues per room. By that last measure, "they're the best in the industry," says Steven Kent, lodging analyst at Goldman Sachs. Consider earnings growth, and Canada looks even more attractive right now. According to IBES, a New York City-based company that tracks analyst estimates, the average earnings growth for Canadian firms is 27.4%, compared with 20.5% for U.S. firms. For investors looking to get in, most large Canadian companies have dual listings on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges. Several international funds, like Acorn International, have good-sized stakes in Canada. Another option is buying Canadian WEBS (world equity benchmark shares), which invest in a basket of Canadian companies and trade on the Amex under ticker symbol EWC. They're up 20% for the year. For a country that refers to its national currency as the "loon," that's not too bad. |
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