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Buying The Firm Asset-management firms are the hottest thing on the auction block. Here, three that could go next.
By Margaret Boitano

(FORTUNE Magazine) – With the euro sliding to a near all-time low against the greenback, you might think that all the bargain hunting these days is being done by Visa-toting tourists on the Ponte Vecchio. But in fact some of the more ambitious shopping is being done in the other direction. European financial institutions are snapping up U.S. asset-management companies as if they were Prada bags. And in typical tourist fashion, many are paying top-dollar for the privilege.

The Europeans are so eager to get a foothold in the U.S. market--and their hands on the steady stream of fee-based revenues that asset managers generate--that even troubled firms are being scooped up at a premium. Consider United Asset Management, a conglomerate of U.S. money managers. When it put its high-profile PBHG unit on the block last year, it got nary a nibble. Then suddenly, this past June, London-based Old Mutual agreed to pay $1.46 billion for the entire firm--a 22% premium over UAM's stock price the day before the deal was announced. Even Pioneer Group, whose stock funds are up an underwhelming 2.7% on average this year, managed to look like Cinderella. This time the prince was an Italian bank, UniCredito, which paid a 40% premium. "Right now we have a seller's market," says Merrill Lynch analyst William Katz. "Once we get past the euphoria of one deal begetting the next, we may see more economic discipline with the buyers."

Perhaps, but for now the euphoria seems to be in full swing. Money-management stocks have been on a tear since spring, when the takeover activity began picking up. The good news for investors is that it's not too late to profit from the mergermania. We've found a handful of stocks that are zooming ahead on more than just hype. They have what suitors really want: access to wealthy U.S. clients--a segment of the market expected to grow rapidly as aging baby-boomers retire. Sure, there's no guarantee they'll be bought out tomorrow, next year, or ever. But even if they don't, these picks are well positioned for solid growth.

For years Neuberger Berman was a study in contrasts: an elegant, white-shoe money-management firm that specialized in buying beaten-up value stocks. You can still see remnants of its high-toned past in its Manhattan offices, where modern artworks by Gerhard Richter and Doug Aitken adorn the walls.

Much changed last October, when the company went public and new chief Jeffrey Lane, a former Travelers Group exec, took over. Lane had his work cut out for him from day one. Neuberger's mutual funds were bleeding billions in cash, and the IPO didn't exactly receive a standing ovation from Wall Street. (The stock closed below its initial offering price of $32 and stayed there for six months.) But the new CEO began aggressively promoting the firm's growth funds. And thanks to double-digit returns in several of its offerings, including its Focus fund (up 20.4% this year) and Regency Trust (up 17.9%), more cash is finally rolling in than out.

Neuberger's biggest growth, however, may be coming from Heidi Schneider, who heads the company's private-asset-management team, catering to wealthy clients. Representing slightly less than 40% of Neuberger's total assets under management, it's responsible for nearly 60% of the company's pretax earnings.

While the changes, coupled with recent takeover speculation, have doubled the price of Neuberger stock (87% of which is owned by partners and employees), Lane remains sure that the rise is only beginning. "At $32, we were cheap. At $50, we're still trading at less than the asset-management industry, and that's insulting," he says. Indeed, Neuberger Berman is priced at around 17 times next year's earnings. Lane admits he has recently fielded calls from potential buyers, but he insists money alone won't seal a deal. "It would have to be money and a strategic fit," he says. Still, the right offer may not be far away.

If you think Neuberger Berman is big when it comes to managing rich people's money, it's nothing compared with Northern Trust. Northern oversees $1.6 trillion in trust assets, making it the fourth-largest trust company in the U.S. It also manages $330 billion in fund assets--ten times those of Neuberger.

That's just the type of mix that makes buyers salivate. The big question: Is it for sale? Price is certainly an issue. Thanks to takeover speculation, Northern's shares have climbed 52%, to $80, this year. Its forward P/E multiple is a hefty 39. "I'm sure there are people who would love to buy it," says Richard Cervone, an analyst for Putnam Investments. But given how well Northern has performed independently, he says, the asking price is likely to be high.

For its part, Northern says it isn't encouraging potential suitors. "Our strategy has been to be the acquirer as opposed to the acquiree," says Chairman Bill Osborn. Right now the company is trying to break into the Northeast, where over one-quarter of the high-net-worth market is located. Northern had hoped to merge with U.S. Trust, but before serious talks got under way, Schwab snapped it up for a whopping $2.7 billion.

The next best bet is a smaller company called Wilmington Trust. The 12th-largest trust provider in the U.S., Wilmington runs $24 billion in assets and owns stakes in two small money firms. Its wealth-management and corporate-trust revenues grew at a double-digit clip in the last quarter.

Unlike Northern, Wilmington's stock has missed the rising tide. This year it's down 2%, to $47. But Colin Ferenbach, manager of the Haven fund, says that only makes it doubly attractive. It's just a matter of time before a bigger fish will swallow it, he says. And waiting for that to happen isn't a problem, thanks to its hefty 3.75% dividend. "With Wilmington," he says, "you win two ways."

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