CNNMoney.com
Companies Economy International Corrections Pre-market Trading After-hours Trading Winners/Losers/Actives Bonds Currencies Commodities World Markets Money Magazine Real Estate Taxes Jobs Ask the Expert Money 101 Autos Mutual Funds The Help Desk Loan Center Best Places to Live Ask the Expert Ultimate Guide to Retirement Retirement Calculators Best Funds Best Places to Retire Fortune Brainstorm Tech Apple 2.0 Blog Big Tech Blog Sectors and Stocks Tech Talk Resource Guide Small Business Makeovers Questions & Answers Small Business Video 100 Best Places to Launch FSB 100 Fortune Small Business Fortune 500 Brainstorm Tech Investing Management C-Suite Rankings Main Create Portfolio Edit Portfolio Create Alerts Edit Alerts
A Few Delectable Restaurant Stocks--At Discount Prices
By David Stires

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Given Americans' more harried workdays and their passion for eating out, you'd think restaurant stocks would be the ultimate safe haven. After all, we have to eat, right? But lately investors have found them about as appetizing as cold leftovers.

In part, this is because restaurants are fighting fears of a slowing economy. Interest rates have climbed, leading to concerns that consumers will start spending less (and eating at home more). Plus, wages and food prices are on the upswing. Congress is likely to raise the minimum wage next year to $6.15 an hour from $5.15, and the Department of Agriculture projects that beef prices will jump as much as 6% in 2000. Stir all that in a cast-iron pot, and you get a sector down 34% from its 12-month high. In fact, the S&P Restaurant index trades at a 40% discount to the S&P 500, making these stocks, on a relative basis, cheaper now than they've been since 1960, says Elaine Garzarelli, manager of the Forward Garzarelli Equity fund. It's the blue-plate special to end all blue-plate specials.

Now some analysts are betting the category can come back, especially if the economy proves more resilient than the pessimists suspect. Indeed, Garzarelli named restaurants one of her favorite sectors back in mid-September. Why? For starters, revenue is better than it's ever been. After posting a record $258 billion in sales last year, restaurateurs are on track to set another record this year. And "comparable store sales" (meaning sales for locations open at least 12 months, a critical industry measure) have been on the upswing for nearly three years, reversing a negative trend from 1995 to 1997. More impressive, the average chain's earnings are expected to grow 13% next year, beating the 8% to 10% rise that some observers predict for the S&P 500. "The industry fundamentals have never been stronger," says U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Allan Hickok.

With that in mind, we ran a screen to find a few tasty restaurant stocks. We looked for companies with market caps of at least $250 million that trade at forward P/Es below the industry average of 18 and yet expect long-term profits to meet or exceed their peers' 18% earnings-growth rates. Finally, we screened for companies that had recently beaten analyst expectations by better than the market average. Here, our three picks.

CEC Entertainment (CEC). CEC owns the chain of Chuck E. Cheese restaurants--equal parts video arcade, theme park, and pizza joint. Due to steady expansions, strong same-store sales growth, and, of course, heavy marketing of its mouse mascot, Chuck E. Cheese, the Irving, Texas, chain has reported 15 consecutive quarters of record earnings.

Today, CEC is upgrading many of its 366 restaurants, adding new toddler play areas, more rides, and games for younger children. In addition, CEC plans to open about 30 new units this year. And to boost margins, many restaurants are adding menu items, such as chicken wings and ice cream. The stock trades at $31 a share, about 12 times next year's earnings, which most analysts think is out of whack with CEC's earnings-growth projections of 22% a year.

Jack in the Box (JBX). In the competitive fast-food business this San Diego company has managed to attract a loyal following of 18- to 34-year-olds with a menu that stays away from the basic burger-and-fries formula. In fact, thanks to its specialty sandwiches, Mexican foods, and side items, burgers account for just 25% of sales, which should help the company weather beef price hikes. JBX's veteran managers now plan to expand from the western U.S., where most of its 1,600 restaurants are located, into the Southeast. Sales in that market have been about 15% ahead of sales on the West Coast.

At $21 a share, the stock sells for just 9.5 times next year's earnings. Yet the consensus of the eight analysts who follow it, seven of whom rate it a buy, is for long-term earnings to grow by 18% a year.

Ruby Tuesday (RI). This chain, based in Maryville, Tenn., operates 400 casual-dining restaurants across the U.S. Since its spinoff from Morrison Restaurants in 1996, Ruby Tuesday has seen earnings jump more than 20% a year. This success stems in part from a creative strategy to make its employees feel like owners (55% of managers invest their own money in restaurants for a piece of the profits). The company recently strengthened that program and improved training for lower-level employees, a move that should pay off with better service, repeat customers, and loyal employees. Ruby stock sells for $12 a share, giving it a forward P/E of just 12. Earnings, however, are projected to grow by 20% a year.

If the economy maintains its strength, all three stocks could be hearty picks for your portfolio.