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Move Over, Silicon Valley; D.C. Is Where It's At
By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Silicon Valley, which has propelled innovation and economic growth for the past six years, is wounded. With layoffs, rolling blackouts, and rumors of Arnold Schwarzenegger gunning to run the entire state, the region is hardly in any condition to be our national savior. So Americans are looking 3,000 miles east for a hero. Suddenly Washington, D.C., which hasn't been all that relevant since Jimmy Carter's days of malaise, is hot. The reason: The federal government, with its ability to tax, redistribute, and loosen the money supply, is the one place industry and individuals know they can turn when their own resources falter.

Shifts in zeitgeist are hard to measure, but there are harbingers of a D.C. resurgence everywhere. For the past four years, lawmakers have flocked to Palo Alto to beg for money and advice from TechNet, the lobbying arm of the high-tech community. These days TechNet members are coming east more often and with a less "arrogant" attitude, says TechNet CEO Rick White. "Technology has been the darling of both parties, and that can't last forever," he explains. "Right now you do have the East Coast reasserting itself--Washington specifically."

Indeed, the days are past when lawmakers would run over one another to cadge a private moment with Larry, Carly, or Bill. Electronic industry executives held a meeting on Capitol Hill last month, and only ten Democratic Senators showed up. The same gathering a year earlier drew 21 Senators. Why? Says Ohio Congressman John Boehner: "[Techies] come here with much emptier pockets." And lately they've been showing up with their hats in their hands. Washington is a treasure trove of subsidies, tax breaks, and interest rate cuts for those who are sinking fast. Lawmakers--especially those on Congress' tax-writing and appropriations committees--are hearing pleas for help from tech outfits and lots of other industries, all of which are grappling with sagging profits. And lawmakers are listening. "There's pressure for more spending--bipartisan pressure," reports Steve Bell, a top aide to Pete Domenici of New Mexico, chairman of the Senate Budget Committee.

Luckily Washington has money to spend. Anticipating the clamor for cash, the Bush administration has slated discretionary programs to grow by 4% next fiscal year, a full percentage point more than in any of the years that follow. Job training programs, so needed in a downturn, get an even larger bump. On top of that, the President wants to put $1 trillion into a reserve fund--just in case. On taxes, the size of relief this year seems to get bigger by the day. Says Boehner: "When the economy softens, the government steps up its fiscal policy to help."

But don't expect pump priming of the New Deal or supply-side varieties. Bush is a fiscal conservative. He even persuaded business leaders to refrain from attaching self-interested breaks to his tax bill. He managed this feat by implying he would support a second bill chock full of those benefits. Ha! Old hands say that when a person in authority promises tax overhaul down the road, the correct retort is "What year?" When FORTUNE asked that question of Larry Lindsey, Bush's chief economic advisor, he responded, "Later this decade." In other words, don't count on it.

If that time ever comes, Bush will probably play favorites. When asked which is more compelling, small or big businesses, Bush aide Karl Rove doesn't hesitate. "Small," he says. "There are a lot more of them...and they're more likely to avoid special pleading." If so, small businesses will be some of the few to skip the panhandling routine. As the economy slips, begging in Washington rises--across the board.