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Keep Prices Out Of Control
By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum

(FORTUNE Magazine) – We're about to get an earful on the wisdom of price controls. The upcoming Senate hearings about the need for price caps on California energy will be the first of many lectures. The next barrage will involve prescription drugs. And populist politicians, mostly Democrats, will press for consumer relief all year long.

We shouldn't give in. Two words rarely appear in the same sentence: economists and consensus. But on the issue of price controls, they belong together. The famously divided profession agrees that government-imposed price caps generally don't work and, in fact, only make matters worse. "Ninety-five percent of economists would say that price controls are always dumb or that there should be a very strong presumption against price controls," says Robert Litan of the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution. "They lead to artificial scarcity and then perpetuate it."

Everyone also agrees that the government should intervene in cases of price fixing, which is illegal. And a few respected economists, such as Cornell University's Alfred Kahn, believe that the California energy market is controlled by so few producers that it can easily be rigged for profiteering. A single producer can hold back supply, these economists say, causing prices to zoom and gouging consumers. That would warrant temporary price limits as long as they are set high enough to permit a profit.

Problem is, there isn't enough evidence to prove price fixing. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has looked for market manipulation and so far hasn't found it. In the absence of price fixing, price controls would represent the triumph of politics over common sense. If a ceiling is placed on the price of a commodity, companies that produce that commodity won't make more. They'll make less, because price lids curtail profits. So while consumers may feel a moment of ease, they will also face more shortages and spiraling prices down the road. In the 1970s the feds capped gasoline prices, only to see rationing and long lines at the pump.

During the next few months Californians will howl at high energy prices in the state. But customers will do what's needed: reduce their consumption. Producers will also react in a constructive way. They will invest and produce more, which eventually will end the scarcity and bring prices down.

Let's remember how California got into this fix. It deregulated wholesale energy prices but limited the amount consumers could be charged. In other words, price caps helped cause the problem. Mandating more of them would simply compound the error.