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Flying Scared (But With Frequent-Flier Miles.)
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Some questions to ponder, as you wait your turn at the airport metal detector: Will your frequent-flier miles be a casualty of this national crisis? Will you ever again be a frequent flier? Will the war on terrorism spell the end of airline fare wars? So many questions, so few answers. But here are some educated guesses. --Frequent-flier programs aren't likely to disappear. They are a profit center for airlines, which collect revenue from corporate partners like credit-card issuers. Plus the airlines crave repeat customers who respond to this carrot. "The competition for frequent fliers will be more intense than ever," says Michael Batt, the head of retail agencies at travel giant Carlson Wagonlit. "The airlines need to make friends with their passengers." --People will fly again, but they'll be pickier about it. In a national survey taken Sept. 12 and 13 by the travel marketing firm Yesawich Pepperdine & Brown, lots of business travelers had a short list of places they wouldn't go: New York (30%), the Middle East (28%), and Washington, D.C. (24%). Barring further attacks, most experts believe the airlines' comeback will be more inhibited by the economy than by fear of flying. --Eventually, airlines are expected to offer deeply discounted fares to build traffic, but so far they're not (a spectacular exception is National Airlines' Tuesday special: $50 roundtrip from Chicago to Las Vegas). Right now, ticket prices are secondary to passengers' security concerns. "The airlines need to teach people to get on planes again," says Randy Petersen, publisher of InsideFlyer, which tracks airline incentive programs. He thinks some airlines may revive "fly three, get one free" promotions, used during the Gulf war to give one free roundtrip ticket for every three purchased. A healthy airline industry is of vital concern to convention- and tourist-dependent cities. In Orlando, 250 business meetings scheduled for September were canceled, and Disney World was as quiet as a mouse. In New Orleans, a 30,000-person commercial-aviation convention was postponed, and 17 other business meetings scheduled from Sept. 12 to Oct. 11 were canceled. One silver lining: Some people are actually finding travel more tolerable. Airline employees are accommodating; fellow passengers aren't jostling. When health-care executive David Epstein took a post-attack flight out of New Orleans, he discovered "a civility that permeated every part of the airport. It's almost a pleasure." --John Helyar |
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