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The Street Reclaims Its Soul
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Did you see Mariah Carey the other night on the TV benefit for victims of the attack? I love Mariah! She sang "Hero," but I have to say, it wasn't exactly stellar. Then again, Mariah has been through the ringer lately: divorce, failed relationships, career ups and downs, and a breakdown. She was about 65%, if you ask me. Which is about where all of us are right now. Sixty-five percent. Or less. Thousands of people on Wall Street are dead. Our economy is foundering. The markets are in tatters. We face a "new war" the likes of which we have never seen, and one that the President himself has promised will be protracted. We are riddled with uncertainty (market hates that!) and fear (hates that too!). Over the past 18 months we have gone from the top of the world to the edge of the abyss. The Nasdaq is now down more than 70% from its highs, an almost unimaginable drop. (By the way, I think this plunge has more to do with its being overvalued back then than undervalued now.) The difference in the tone--and substance--of the market talk is just as dramatic. Back in the spring of 2000 we were all going gaga over Cisco and Global Crossing and eToys. Today all we hear about is American Airlines, Munich Re, and Raytheon. (And cash.) I guess it makes sense that the biggest speculative bubble of the past 100 years was followed by the biggest stock market implosion of the past 100 years. We were obviously on our way down, but it took two planes of death to bring us to our knees. Think for a minute about the people of Wall Street. Who are they? Well, the average Wall Street guy (yes, guy), I'd say, is about 30 years old. Played sports in college. Has two small kids. Lives outside of Manhattan in Jersey or on the Island. Has his friends, who are pretty much like him. Parents are okay too. Was in short pants during the last bad recession and was buying kegs for frat parties during the last tough market. (Yes, the market was tanking before Sept. 11, but it was always about to bounce back, right?) And then, WHAM! The planes hit, and unspeakable evil was unleashed upon him. He lost maybe five friends and casual buddies. Wall Street as he knew it has become a war zone, a cemetery. And that was just the first week. The second week was like Tennyson's "Charge of the Light Brigade" ("Half a league, half a league,/Half a league onward,/All in the valley of Death/Rode the six hundred ..."). In other words, our Wall Street guy went into work on the morning of Sept. 17 knowing the market was going to take a pounding, which of course it did. In the markets' worst week since the fall of France, $1 trillion-plus of shareholder value went up in smoke. To say that this will be the most devastating fortnight of a young Wall Streeter's career is almost an understatement. So are the Wall Street shrinks working overtime? I certainly hope so. Okay, how in the world do we get it all back? I'm not talking about just stocks and bonds, because as sure as bin Laden and the Taliban deserve to be swept onto the scrap heap of history, the market will come back. (We'll even get back to Nasdaq 5,000, though it may take until 2015 or so.) And I'm not talking about just the economy, which ironically will require a good dose of stimulus from the no-big-government Bush Administration. I'm talking about the spirit of the Street. The can-do. The devil-may-care, and the balls-to-the-wall too. Well, getting that back will take time. And tears. It will take healing. And scores and scores of memorial services. A few winning sessions and some more losses too. Ultimately, we will all simply have to reach down inside and pull ourselves up. Just like Brad Jack, head of investment banking at Lehman Brothers, who's exhorting his people to give it their all, even as they work out of hotel rooms (sans minibar and Spectravision). And of course like the troops at Cantor Fitz and Keefe, AON and Marsh. To say nothing of the hundreds of widows of those New York firefighters and police officers. And their kids. So while some people have been sending around Auden's "September 1, 1939," I've been listening to Mariah. And especially the refrain from that song: So when you feel like hope is gone Look inside you and be strong And you'll finally see the truth That a hero lies in you. We're going to make it back. All of us. |
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