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Call Me Ice-Cream Crazy
(FORTUNE Magazine) – Hello. My name is Andy, and I'm an ice-cream freak. As in "Quick stop the car! There's a scoop shop!" Or "Honey, I'm just going to pick up five pints of Haagen-Dazs on my way home." Ice-cream companies love me. I know it's the dead of winter, but I never stop. As you can tell, I take more than a casual journalistic interest in ice cream. But in fact there's quite a bit going on with this business right now, so I thought I'd share it with you. (Don't ask me to share my Klondike bar, though!) First, you should know that ice cream is a good business. It's stable, growing, and without entanglements of the moral, ethical, or legal kind. Yes, the product is fattening, but that is just an unfortunate detail. (BTW: Frozen yogurt isn't ice cream. Just say no.) The business has many pieces. There are companies that churn out ice cream in gallon tubs for supermarkets (ChocVanStraw, anyone?)--mostly regional dairies like Hood in the East or West Farm Foods out West. And then there are the higher end or premium brands like Blue Bunny, Dreyer's, and Breyers (the latter is owned by Unilever). Why those two names are so similar I'll never know. It's as if two big car companies were named Ford and Mord. Dreyer's, or Dreyer's Grand, to be more precise, is the biggest U.S. packager of ice cream and also one of the few pure-play public ice-cream companies in the U.S. The pride of Oakland, Dreyer's also sells Edy's ice cream and does about $1.2 billion in sales annually. DRYR has had its ups and downs, but here are the salient facts: The stock has outper-formed the market this year as well as over the past two, five, and ten years. Ka-ching! Then there's the real sexy stuff, the superpremiums, a la Ben & Jerry's and Haagen-Dazs (and as many boutiquey names, it seems, as there are microbreweries). This business has attracted heavy attention from the Euro ice-cream giants. Last year Unilever bought Ben & Jerry's for $326 million, a sad day only because it means no more Ben & Jerry's ice-cream fest annual meeting (see Street Life, Aug. 2, 1999, on fortune.com). And right now Nestle is looking to scoop up the 50% of Haagen-Dazs it doesn't already own from Pillsbury (which is being bought by General Mills). Nestle has also increased its stake in Dreyer's to 24%. Why are Nestle and Unilever licking their lips over these businesses? Because Americans are the world leaders in ice-cream consumption, putting away some 46 pints per person each year! Can you believe it? We eat about half that ice cream from supermarkets and half from scoop shops. Speaking of scoop shops, I should remind you that Warren Buffett is a big player in the ice-cream business--his Berkshire Hathaway owns International Dairy Queen (which has nearly 5,900 shops). I suspect that this business does an excellent job of satisfying both his bottom line and his lively taste buds. Of course there are hundreds if not thousands of mom-and-pop parlors out there. As well as national chains like Baskin-Robbins (Jamoca Almond Fudge rules!)--its 4,500 stores are controlled by Allied Domecq--and regionals like Friendly's (ticker FRN), whose stock has soured over the years (a combo of overexpansion and a heavy dollop of debt). A regional with a brighter future, perhaps, is Carvel. Remember the pitch on TV? "Pick up Fudgy the Whale for a whale of a dad!" Buyout firm Roark Capital just picked up a controlling stake in the company for $30 million. Carvel has had its share of troubles: Its franchisees--it has some 400, all on the East Coast--were unhappy when the parent company started selling the cakes in supermarkets. But the ill will is a thing of the past, says Roark's Neal Aronson, who plans to expand Carvel nationally. "We are going to sell more ice-cream cakes in supermarkets, but the franchisees know that. It helps build their brand. Plus, we're going to open up Carvel kiosks in malls, movie theaters, and stadiums, which will be great opportunities for them." Mmmm, Carvel everywhere. Sounds like a great opportunity for me! Warning: This run is no fun Every once in a while you see a stock chart that falls so sharply top left to bottom right that it looks just like a ski slope! Well, here's one that really fits the bill. American Skiing (ticker SKI), which was up over $15 right after it went public in late 1997, has been simply flying downhill ever since. The stock now trades for less than a buck. American Skiing, based in Newry, Me., was built by a guy named Les Otten. He started in 1980 with a single resort in Maine--Sunday River--then added some of the best-known names in snow. The company now owns nine resorts in the East and West, including Sugarloaf, Killington, and Steamboat Springs. At one point it was the biggest ski outfit in America in terms of number of skiers skiing! But over the past few years SKI has hit the skids. (Or should I say double diamonds?) Wall Street says it expanded too fast and moved unsuccessfully into condos. Now Sept. 11 has cut way back on ski trips, and this winter has been one of the warmest on record in the East. Could be time to call the ski patrol on this one. FEEDBACK: aserwer@fortunemail.com |
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