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Beers to Ya! In a skunky market, Budweiser and Coors just keep chugging along.
(FORTUNE Magazine) – August is a particularly good month for drinking beer, although I must say the other 11 aren't bad either. Which is why beer has always been a pretty good business. Yes, there are concerns about teenage drinking. And there's wine encroachment! But all things being equal--and I find that, with beer, things usually are--Americans are going to keep on drinking beer. Investors seem comforted by that notion. Beer stocks--there are only two big public companies left in the U.S., Coors and Anheuser-Busch--have been, well, let's skip frothy and just say cool, crisp, and refreshing. Over the past one, two, and five years, both BUD and RKY have beaten up on the S&P. But before I tell you what's right with these companies, let me tell you what's wrong. Compared with other beverage categories--water, juice, even soda--beer is staid. There are now three giant beer companies in the U.S. (Miller, just sold by Philip Morris to South African Breweries, is the third), all making the same cheap beer. Per capita consumption of beer dropped slightly last year, to 21.7 gallons. (The U.S. is No. 5 after the Czech Republic, Germany, Britain, and Australia.) "To a certain extent," says Tom Pirko, head of consulting firm BevMark, "all the excitement and the new products in water, soft drinks, and juices are a reflection of America's boredom with beer." In this flat environment Anheuser-Busch has come out on top. By a mile. Credit here has to go to August "Auggie" Busch III, who just stepped down as CEO in June. Here is Auggie's scorecard: In 1975, when he took over the CEO job from his father, "Gussie," the company had a 24% U.S. market share. Today A-B has a 49% share. "They have mastered the art of marketing and selling beer," says Pirko. "They have crushed Miller," which has seen its market share slip to around 20%. Fifteen years ago you might have predicted that Anheuser would get drubbed by imports and microbrews. What happened? Today microbreweries look to be mainly for hobbyists, though Anheuser dabbles in that biz through its ownership of Redhook. It also owns 50% of Grupo Modelo, Mexico's largest brewer, which sells America's No. 1 import, Corona. As for Coors, the pride of Golden, Colo., it could soon supplant Miller as the nation's No. 2 brewer. RKY has an 11% share, which made for about 7.9 billion 12-ounce bottles sold last year. Coors has done an admirable job marketing (it's all about the marketing in this biz!) the Silver Bullet (Coors Light), now the fourth-best-selling beer in the U.S. You have to hand it to Peter Coors, who, like his counterpart down in St. Louis, has taken his family's business to the next level. Consider that Coors wasn't even a national brand until ten years ago. And he hasn't stopped there, recently buying Carling, the top brand in Britain. That has added leverage to RKY's balance sheet--one reason Coors stock is much cheaper than Anheuser's. "Coors is riskier than A-B," says Pirko. "A-B is a machine. Hard to see them not plowing ahead." Which in these times may be the Holy Grail to investors. That and a nice cold one. Poetic injustice: from bad to verse The recent exodus of top executives is so wild that I feel a rhyme coming on. Let's start at the beginning, beginning with A Which is where Arthur Andersen used to hold sway But hold was not what Joe Berardino could do. Instead he and his firm slipped into the stew. Enron of course comes quickly to mind And it didn't take long for the world to find That Messrs. Lay, Skilling, Fastow, and McMahon Seemed to have a master plan That went seriously awry--but why ask why? In Houston, they're falling like flies. Just ask Chuck Watson of Dynegy. He used to be just fine, you see, As head of Enron's crosstown rival, he had nothing to fear Until he too ended up out on his ear. Then there's those crazy kids from Coudersport, Pa. I'm talking 'bout the family Rigas, who almost got away With "looting" cable company Adelphia, or so the feds say. Now they could be at the Cross Bar Motel for an extended stay. Back in the Big Apple, we have Dr. Sam Waksal Who's hoping that someone bakes him a cake with a hacksaw And let's not forget Qwest's Joe Nacchio Denver's own version of hubris and machismo He took a Baby Bell straight down the tubes Until he too found himself no more than refuse. Gee, Dennis Kozlowski, we're very upset We've never had the love every shareholder should get We ain't no delinquents, we're misunderstood Deep down inside Tyco there is good And then it's bye-bye WorldCom/MCI Ebbers drove his Mercedes to Hades, but the Styx was dry. And I know a CFO named Scott Sullivan. He's been charged with all kinds of fraud. Begin again. Sadly Europe too caught this disease from the Yanks And didn't take long to start cranking the crank There was the Messier mess, oh poor Jean-Marie! But what do you expect from a company named Vivendi? Then there's Bertelsmann, the other Euro media giant Which threw out Thomas Middelhoff. Oh, how defiant! Meanwhile, Herr Ron Sommer was invited to take leave As head of Deutsche Telekom. (And make that schnell, please!) Even in Canada, north of the border We had some disorder. Eleanor Clitheroe of Hydro One, they say Was shown the door for malfeasance, eh? And finally back home there's good old AOL Which I must say is really beginning to smell We know Bobby Pittman sat on a wall We know Bobby Pittman took a big fall But is that all? Didn't Jerry Levin too get pushed? I don't know, maybe I've got my stories all mushed. And so there you have it, happy but true. It goes to show what shareholders can do. If you've got deadwood or worse minding the store Give them a good swift kick! Right out the door! E-mail him at aserwer@fortunemail.com. |
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