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He's Gotta Sell It The President's tax-cut plan may be a tougher marketing job than many think.
By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Call it a blitzkrieg. That's President Bush's war plan for ramming his economic recovery proposal through Congress. By all accounts, Bush is dead-set on signing his yet-to-be-formalized package of tax cuts into law by May--if not, as some rumors have it, by Tax Day, April 15. That would mean unveiling the particulars before January's State of the Union address and clearing it through House and Senate committees by, say, March. With a clean-sweep Republican Congress, giddy boosters of the plan say the lightning-fast schedule is doable. But don't go counting your IRS refunds quite yet. The route the White House plans to take is littered with land mines--many of them laid by lawmakers from Bush's own party.

Here's why: To streamline enactment of fiscal legislation, Congress annually passes a budget blueprint. As long as lawmakers stay within its parameters, the Senate can approve bills with a simple majority (51 votes), not the 60-vote hurdle that's often required because of filibusters there. But the blueprint outlines the entire budget, not just tax cuts. So the President will be forced to negotiate the cost--and residual deficit--of many other initiatives too. First among them is a prescription-drug benefit that will run at least $300 billion over ten years, roughly the same amount as his tax cuts. With the deficit for fiscal 2003 projected at $145 billion, Republicans may have to go on record in favor of a deficit as much as 40% higher than that before they even begin to debate the President's tax relief. "You do have to stare in the face a larger deficit number up front," a senior White House aide admits. "So you stand to lose some deficit hawks."

That's one reason Bush chose respected antideficit activists as his key salesmen. Treasury Secretary-designate John Snow and top economic aide Stephen Friedman will provide political cover to fellow fiscal disciplinarians who are reluctant to go along. Still, the outcome is by no means certain. Deficit hawks like Senator Wayne Allard (R-Colorado), who is on the Senate's budget committee, and Senator Jon Kyl (R-Arizona), on the finance committee, will be bellwethers of GOP resistance. Another key to consensus will be a handful of moderates from both parties. The President must come to terms with them on a price tag for prescription drugs, which will inevitably be wrapped up in the far larger issue of overhauling Medicare itself. Keep an eye on Senators John Breaux (D-Louisiana), Jim Jeffords (I-Vermont), Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) for that.

Despite Bush's likely strategy of pushing a package that is small, sleek, and priced to move, most Democrats will balk. They may seek to substitute a payroll tax holiday for income-tax reductions to better benefit working-class taxpayers. The partisan divide may end up looking like the Ardennes forest. Which means this Bush blitz could end up a lot slower than he hopes.