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From Kerry to Kucinich to Clark? It's still early, but we handicap the first leg of the Democratic presidential race.
(FORTUNE Magazine) – CAROL MOSELEY BRAUN is a former one-term Senator from Illinois (defeated for reelection in 1998) who was named U.S. ambassador to New Zealand as a consolation prize. Her presidential bid might have run out of money if the National Organization for Women hadn't endorsed her in August. But that won't be enough. Ex-Vermont governor HOWARD DEAN is the front-runner. He thrilled rank-and-file voters by opposing the Iraq war. Now he's ahead in key polls. The nomination is his to lose. But here's the issue: Does he have enough conservative credentials to transform himself from the liberal he seems today into the centrist he must become to beat George Bush? JOHN EDWARDS of North Carolina is a freshman Senator with little experience in elective office. But his fellow trial lawyers are keeping his coffers filled to the brim. He still might find traction in his native South, but his best shot may come if a Northerner wins the nomination and needs a handsome newcomer as a running mate. Missouri Representative RICHARD GEPHARDT is mounting his last hurrah. He ran for the Democratic nomination in 1988 but lost. To win this time he needs the unalloyed support of his closest ally, organized labor, as well as a victory in the Iowa caucuses. But some union leaders are holding back to be sure that he isn't an also-ran. Senator BOB GRAHAM is the most popular politician in his home state of Florida. That's his secret weapon. No one gives him much chance of winning the nomination. But he could well be picked for Veep because he can deliver Florida for the ticket. And we all now know how important the Sunshine State is come Election Day! Senator JOHN KERRY of Massachusetts was once expected to run away with the nomination. But he's fading. If he fails to win the New Hampshire primary, he probably won't win anywhere. And if Wes Clark enters the race, Kerry can no longer claim to be the only Vietnam war veteran in the race. Still, don't count him out yet. DENNIS KUCINICH of Ohio as been a Congressman since 1997, but he's still best known for allowing Cleveland to go into default when he was mayor in 1978. Few voters have ever heard of him. And too many of those who do remember his nickname: Dennis the Menace. His chance of winning the nomination: approaching zero. Connecticut Senator JOSEPH LIEBERMAN was popular three years ago as Al Gore's running mate, but fundraising for his own presidential campaign has lagged that of his chief opponents. If Democratic voters decide they want an often pro-Bush middle-of-the-roader as their standard-bearer, he says he's ready. But don't bet on it happening. REV. AL SHARPTON has run for Senate and mayor of New York City but has never won. His specialty is staging highly publicized protests, mostly on behalf of the downtrodden. He probably hopes to replace Jesse Jackson as a national agitator, because the chances of his taking the nomination are nil. |
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