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The Amazing FORTUNE Retirement Analyzer Want to know what your golden years will look like? We've factored in the data in 12 key areas, from heath care to taxes. Here is what to expect.
By Ellen Florian Reporter Associate Doris Burke

(FORTUNE Magazine) – Times change. People change. And alas, so do notions of retirement. It's hard to conceive of sunset years that aren't entirely filled with sunrises on a Hawaiian beach. But imagine it we must, because the changes in American retirement over the past decade are so enormous that we hardly recognize the landscape anymore. To make sure your old age is secure, you need to face some big, scary realities about what is different. You'll be glad to know that not all the news is bad. To make sense of it, we crunched the numbers in our new Retirement Analyzer. Once you've seen the difference--and hopefully the light--take our checkup quiz to find out exactly where you stand on the road to retirement. --Ellen Florian

The shifting landscape

For as clear a picture as possible, we asked the Analyzer to sort the various changes from worst to best as you read from left to right.

Health care

Call 911! Skyrocketing medical costs are a retirement emergency. Out-of-pocket costs for employees increased 10.8% in 2002, according to consulting firm Hewitt Associates. Meanwhile, the cost to companies for employees' health-insurance premiums rose 14.8% last year. Something has to give, and that something will likely be benefits for retirees. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the percentage of large firms offering health benefits to retirees fell from 66% in 1988 to 38% in 2002. For some helpful tips on how to soften the impact of rising costs, see "Save an Arm and a Leg" in the pages preceding this article. And keep your fingers crossed for a miracle cure.

Social Security

Here's the new New Deal. By the time a 30-year-old reaches retirement, the most optimistic experts predict he'll get 75% of what today's retiree gets in constant dollars. Others say he'll get zip. The Social Security Administration says that on its current trajectory, the system will run a cash-flow deficit by 2018. By 2042 the Social Security Trust Fund will be exhausted. After that? It's anybody's guess. Our advice for workers under 30: Expect little. If you do get something it'll feel like finding a $20 bill in the pocket of an old coat.

Job security

Remember when unemployment among white-collar workers was practically unheard of? Now they take it on the chin with the best of their blue-collar brothers. Of the nine million Americans out of a job, 20% are managers or specialty workers, according to a study by Hofstra University economist Irwin Kellner. And as if the current "jobless recovery" weren't bad enough, now white-collar positions are also heading overseas. A Forrester study predicts that in the next 15 years, 3.3 million service jobs will move to countries like India, Russia, China, and the Philippines.

Pensions

In the bygone era of one-company careers, the pension was often the lone sure thing at the end of the line. Put in your time and you were set. But over the years employers have steadily shifted the burden of retirement savings from themselves to you, in the form of the 401(k). Today only 20% of American workers have company pension plans, down from about 40% at the beginning of 1980. And considering the present pension-fund shortfall--a $216 billion chunk of change that S&P 500 companies owe current and future retirees--it stands to only get worse. You're on your own now.

Market returns

You can still get rich--just a little more slowly. What were once conservative assumptions about your retirement investments are now pie in the sky. The old thinking: On average, your well-balanced, cautious investments will return 8% to 10%. The new thinking: 6% to 8%. And frankly, once you factor in the bond portion of your portfolio and rising management fees, you'll be darn lucky to come away with that 6%. That's fine if you're 30 and have years to compound. It's more troubling if you're 50 and trying to catch up.

College expenses

They call it higher education for a reason. Tuition costs are growing at a 5% annual clip for private schools and an eye-popping 9% for public ones. But saving for the monstrous bill is becoming easier. Right now state-sponsored 529 plans--investment accounts that earmark large sums for future college costs--not only let the money you put in them grow tax-free but, since 2002, allow withdrawals for tuition, room, board, books, and fees free of federal taxes as well. And the 529 offerings are increasing by the minute.

Longevity

Expect more out of life! You heard us right. Only we're talking about its length, not its rewards. Life expectancy has been rising for ages. In 1960 a 50-year-old could expect to live to age 75. Now the average 50-year-old will make it to 80, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. Of course, all this growing long in the tooth is a mixed blessing when it comes to retirement. Those so-called golden years may become cheap plated ones if you can't afford a plane ticket to visit the grandkids.

The retiring life

Okay, so your retirement probably won't be an endless string of days on the beach, pina colada in hand. You may find yourself putting in time as a Wal-Mart greeter or Wendy's cashier to pay for medical costs. And now that grandparents are increasingly responsible for their grandchildren--2.5 million of them, up 5% over 2000--you may spend lots of time watching SpongeBob SquarePants. All together now: "Who lives in a pineapple under the sea?..."

Inflation

Here's some good news for the budget-minded: The past ten years have brought an average annual inflation rate of just 2.5%, compared with 5.1% in the 1980s and a runaway 7.4% in the '70s. Of course, there's been a corresponding drop in interest rates--not so hot if you rely on fixed-income investments. But you won't be priced out of canned goods or comfortable shoes.

Taxes

The recent drop in income tax is a boon to savers (the top rate has fallen from 39.6% to 35%). And the tax cut on dividend income--to just 15%--is even more generous. Plus, current rules on the estate tax mean that when Mom and Pop pass on to retirement in the sky, they bequeath an increasingly smaller portion of their estate to the feds. But while Uncle Sam giveth tax breaks, he also taketh them away. If the sneaky alternative minimum tax isn't changed, your gains may transform themselves into one big IRS liability.

IRAs/401(k)s

So you've given up on pensions and Social Security, right? You'll be glad to hear, then, that the government is making it ever easier for you to exercise some of that good ol' American self-reliance. The amount of money you're allowed to contribute to your 401(k) is now $12,000 per year, up from about $10,500 in 2001. IRA contribution limits will slide up to $5,000 by 2008. And for the 50-plus, here's a bonus: You're allowed to catch up on both your 401(k) and your IRA by kicking in an extra $2,500 this year, combined. By today's standards, that's the equivalent of hitting the retirement jackpot.

Housing

Dorothy was right: There's no place like home. Especially considering that the return on your biggest asset has probably gone through the roof in the past several years, and tax laws governing your capital gains have become much more favorable. Married couples can now take a profit of up to $500,000 when selling their primary residence without Uncle Sam getting a cut. And if you took advantage of rock-bottom mortgage rates, you're probably spending or salting away a few extra bucks each month.

How prepared are you now?

The dramatic changes of the past several years will affect everyone in different ways, depending on age, income, savings, etc. To find out how wary or merry you should be, grab a pencil and add up the points that best match your situation in the five categories below. Your total score in this albeit not-very-scientific test should give you a ballpark idea of your retirement readiness.

Age

If you are... Add ...

25 and under 175 26--35 200 36--45 250 46--55 300 56--65 275 66--75 125 76 and over 75

Income

If your salary is ... Add ...

Below $50,000 175 $50,000 to $75,000 150 $75,000 to $100,000 125 $100,000 to $150,000 100 $150,000 to $200,000 75 $200,000 to $250,000 50 $250,000 to $350,000 25 $350,000 to $500,000 0 $500,000 to $1 million -25 Over $1 million -50

Savings

If you've stashed away... Add...

Below $50,000 200 $50,000 to $100,000 175 $100,000 to $200,000 125 $200,000 to $350,000 100 $350,000 to $500,000 75 $500,000 to $750,000 50 $750,000 to $1.25 million 0 $1.25 million to $2 million -25 $2 million to $3 million -100 Over $3 million -150

Home ownership

Pick the scenario that best describes your relationship to home ownership and add the appropriate points.

You're throwing away your money on rent 50 The bank mostly owns your home. 0 You mostly own your home. -50

Health

Choose the sentence that best describes your physical well-being and give yourself the appropriate points.

While climbing a flight of stairs, you take 100 cigarette breaks between each step.

You can walk the dog without pulling a muscle. 0

During marathon workouts you think to yourself, -50 "Lance Armstrong, that wimp!"

If you scored ...

Above 600 Go on a quick vacation now. You'll be working for the rest of your life unless you take action. Max out your retirement accounts, cut your spending, and cross your fingers.

451-600 We're guessing you enjoy cliff diving. Maybe bungee jumping. Clearly you're not a long-term planner. But take heart. If you're young, things could still change in your favor.

301-450 If you're a connoisseur of the All You Can Eat Buffet and the Early Bird Special, then no problem. Otherwise, consider putting a lot more in your 401(k).

151-300 Whatever it is you're doing, keep it up. It wouldn't hurt to sock away a few extra bucks each month, but you're headed in the right direction.

0-150 You're probably set. We'd say to go ahead and gloat, but it's just not polite. Besides, being way ahead of the game now doesn't mean anything if you don't stay disciplined.

Less than 0 Chances are you're lucky and good. Be sure to stock up on the sunscreen. You're looking at plenty of quality beach time on the Riviera while your money makes more money.