(FORTUNE Magazine) – With Saddam Hussein in captivity and the economy in recovery, you could forgive President Bush for playing it safe in his bid for reelection. Yet when he addresses the nation Jan. 20 for his State of the Union address, he's likely to take some risks. The biggest: highlighting a controversial plan to change Social Security by introducing private accounts.

It would normally be lunacy for a Republican to even utter the words "Social Security" in an election year. Democrats have been winning for decades by accusing Republicans of wanting to sabotage the program. But a top White House aide says that the President "believes in the promise of private retirement accounts" as a way to fix the ailing system and will advocate them as part of his 2004 wish list.

Why take the gamble? According to a current Bush advisor, Bush Sr. "didn't do a good job of articulating an agenda of where he wanted to take the country; many thought he was looking backward and not forward." Bush Jr. is determined "not to just run on the past but to run on a vision for the future."

Bush has other proposals he could emphasize too, such as tax credits to help unemployed workers buy health insurance and construction of a missile-defense shield. But aides say that he won't back away from private accounts. One reason: These vehicles aren't the anathema that they once were. Polls show two-thirds of voters favor putting a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal accounts invested in stocks and bonds. The financial services firms that stand to get a windfall if the accounts become law would no doubt agree. --Jeffrey H. Birnbaum