(FORTUNE Magazine) – Consumer confidence is at a two-year high. The economy is expanding (even if the June job growth numbers weren't quite as rosy as analysts had expected). And investors are feeling downright cocky about the future, it would seem. Sounds like the makings of a long, rollicking stock market party, eh?

Well, not exactly to strategists who put deep faith in technical indicators--those relentless market statistics that are sadly unmoved by such soft human virtues as wishful thinking. Technicians do point to some upbeat facts--business investment, as measured by back orders of capital goods, has consistently been on the rise, for instance. And the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500, though hardly cheap at just over 20, is a bit more affordable than it was, say, in mid-2003. But then there are a few red flags that might give investors pause. Last summer, when FORTUNE examined seven of the most widely used technical indicators, the message was mixed--roughly half the signs pointed to a bull and the other half to a bear. The market, in turn, grew significantly for the first half of the year and then floundered. (Overall, the S&P is up a healthy 19.1% for the 12-month period.) This time around, notably, the most strongly bullish signal from last year, the Baltic Freight rate, has reversed its trendline (see below for a more complete analysis). While it and other downbeat signs don't necessarily foreshadow a dramatic decline in the market in the coming months, such indicators could portend an ongoing slowing of growth. Last year the overall message was more bullish, observes Mark Zandi of Economy.com. "The easy money in the market," he says, "has been made."

SHIPPING

What's the global picture? --Baltic Freight rate (BDIY)

What it tells us

A measure of the cost of shipping goods overseas, the Baltic Freight rate rises in bull markets. The index rose during the 2000 bubble, fell during the slump, then soared to unprecedented heights this past spring.

Verdict

BEARISH The cost of transporting goods fell dramatically this spring. That could mean either abnormally high prices have been corrected or something worse--a headwind for global commerce.

SENTIMENT

How do financial pros feel? --Investments advisors who are ... --Bullish --Bearsih

What it tells us

The 40-year-old Investors Intelligence survey has proved a mostly accurate contrary gauge: When bullish sentiment peaks, the market usually falls because there are fewer bears to convert.

Verdict

BEARISH True to form, a rampage of Wall Street bulls presaged the market blahs. Now the glassy-eyed optimists so outnumber the skeptics that the crowd may be in for a nasty surprise.

VOLATILITY

How jumpy are investors? --S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX)

What it tells us

Low volatility in this index often heralds a market dip. The inverse is also true. Over the past five years, low VIX levels preceded most market tumbles; high levels anticipated gains, even if brief ones.

Verdict

STRONGLY BEARISH Last fall's minipeak in volatility coincided with a run-up in stocks. Since then, volatility has fallen steadily. Economist Zandi calls that complacency "disconcerting."