(FORTUNE Magazine) - MARCH 31, 2006 A look at hot spots, economic fault lines, and events that might have an impact on global risk.

1. MEXICO [INCREASED RISK] Opponents of leading presidential candidate López Obrador are growing increasingly desperate, linking him to Venezuela's Chávez.

2. CHAD [INCREASED RISK] Stability in oil-rich Chad will deteriorate and army defections are likely before a May 3 election that President Idris Déby is expected to win.

3. BELARUS [INCREASED RISK] Opposition groups will continue to charge fraud in the reelection of President Alexander Lukashenko, but to little avail.

4. LEBANON [INCREASED RISK] A weakened U.S. could lead Syria to reinvigorate its involvement in Lebanon, making progress on economic reforms unlikely.

5. AZERBAIJAN [INCREASED RISK] An outbreak of avian flu that resulted in seven human cases has led to charges that the government failed to tackle the problem efficiently.

6. CHINA [INCREASED RISK] Few policy breakthroughs are expected at the April 20 Bush--Hu summit, despite rising U.S. protectionism and frustration.

KEY: INCREASED RISK  DECREASED RISK  NO CHANGE   ANALYSIS BY EURASIA GROUP