(FORTUNE Magazine) -- AUGUST 18, 2006

KEY: INCREASED RISK NO CHANGE DECREASED RISK

1. MEXICO Felipe Calderón, likely to be confirmed as President in September, will have limited success with his reform agenda. Opposition parties should block constitutional changes but could compromise on fiscal and labor reforms.

2. CUBA While Fidel Castro's temporary transfer of power to brother Raúl raised questions about stability, Venezuelan support and Washington's unwillingness to loosen its long-standing embargo will result in little short-term change.

3. DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO President Joseph Kabila is likely to be reinstated. While large protests are expected in Kinshasa, where Kabila is unpopular, the medium-term outlook for the country will improve.

4. LEBANON The façade of national unity will give way to rising sectarian tensions and political flux once the Israeli conflict subsides. The war has raised fears that pro-Syrian Hezbollah is emerging as a state within a state.

5. SAUDI ARABIA The government will probably arrest more Shia activists to prevent public support for Hezbollah in Lebanon. A crackdown would affect the stability of the Shia-dominated oil-rich Eastern Province.

6. NORTH KOREA Increasing collaboration with Iran on long-range-missile development will be a catalyst for the U.S. to put more pressure on Pyongyang by encouraging additional nations to take firmer action.