(FORTUNE Magazine) – 1. Brazil

President Bush and President Lula da Silva agreed to foster a regional market for ethanol production, but the U.S. tariff on imports of Brazilian ethanol was left untouched.

2. Egypt

Parliament is expected to pass 34 constitutional amendments consolidating President Hosni Mubarak's power, which will probably fan street protests and lead to a short period of instability.

3. Iraq

Although Parliament is likely to approve a new hydrocarbon law, the legislation will not resolve the conflict between the regions and the central government over contracting authority, which in turn will discourage investment in the oil sector.

4. China

An unusually large increase of 18% in the military budget shows Beijing's determination to move ahead with military modernization, even after its January antisatellite weapons test drew an outcry from the international community.

5. Thailand

The appointment of former World Bank economist Chalongphob Sussangkarn as Finance Minister may convince investors that policymaking will be business-friendly, but confidence will be slow to return.

6. Philippines

The May 14 elections will increase spending, but Manila appears to be backtracking on revenue goals. President Macapagal-Arroyo has called tax targets "too ambitious."

ANALYSIS BY EURASIA GROUP