March Madness tips from Dr. Bob

(FORTUNE Small Business) -- "Dr. Bob" Stoll is a bookmaker's nightmare. So many customers subscribe to his website, DrBobSports.com - where they can access the 41-year-old sports statistician's insights for anywhere from $15 for a day to $2,495 for a year - that casinos have often had to recalibrate their point spreads after he posts new picks.

Seeking an advantage in our office pool, FSB asked Stoll for some March Madness advice. Stoll recommends looking at the overall tournament as a combination of likelihoods.

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For instance, maybe you think the No. 6 seed has a 70% chance of getting out of the first round, while the No. 3 seed is 95% likely to beat its first-round challenger. In forecasting a second-round matchup, even if you think the No. 6 has a 55% chance of beating the No. 3 seed, you should still pick the No. 3, because when you multiply the two rounds together, the No. 3 has a higher percentage chance of making it into the third round.

Stoll's personal March Madness pool experience suggests he's onto something.

"If I don't win, it looks bad. But the good thing is, I usually get part of the pot, usually in the top five," says Stoll.

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