Look back in wonder: Hits and misses in predictions for 1990
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(MONEY Magazine) – Were you surprised by the sudden emergence of East Germany from behind the Iron Curtain? You wouldn't have been if you had remembered the hundreds of predictions that were floated by the 1,500 economists, business leaders, futurists and government officials at President Nixon's 1972 White House conference, ''A Look at Business in 1990.'' On the other hand, if you had in fact believed every prognostication made at that conference, you would have been fooled most of the time. Below, seven of the more intriguing forecasts -- and how hazy many of those crystal balls really were.

Forecaster and affiliation in 1972 Herman Kahn,director, Hudson Institute, a respected think tank

Forecast for 1990 -- The U.S. will account for one-quarter of the gross world product. -- Both Germanys will emerge as separate economic powers.

What really happened -- The U.S. does account for one-quarter of the gross world product. -- Monetary union is expected this summer between the two Germanys.

Forecaster and affiliation in 1972 The Conference Board, a noted business research group

Forecast for 1990 -- The average workweek will decline from 38.3 hours to 36 hours. -- The U.S. unemployment rate will be 4%. -- 70% of U.S. households will own homes.

What really happened -- The average workweek has fallen to 34.3 hours because of increased part- time work by women. -- Unemployment is at 5.3%, but economists aren't alarmed because they believe that a lower rate would be inflationary. -- Only 64% own homes because incomes haven't kept up with rising house prices.

Forecaster and affiliation in 1972 Berkeley Burrell, president, National Business League

Forecast for 1990 -- Cash will be a thing of the past.

What really happened -- All major banks dispense cash through automated teller machines.

Forecaster and affiliation in 1972 Henry Wallich, economics professor, Yale University

Forecast for 1990 -- Department stores of finance will offer many services in one place.

What really happened -- The financial-supermarket idea stalled because consumers didn't see many benefits and the technology was lacking.

Sources: The Conference Board, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Brookings Institution, U.S. Census Bureau, Duff & Phelps