(MONEY Magazine) – With brokerage profits down roughly 67% from the peak year of 1986, Wall Street's stock jockeys are flogging analysts' picks more aggressively than ever. But in this day of the superhard sell, can you trust what an analyst tells your broker? Just last March, analyst Marvin Roffman of the Philadelphia brokerage Janney Montgomery Scott predicted losses for Donald Trump's new $1 billion Atlantic City gambling palace, the Taj Mahal. After the billionaire developer complained, Roffman was fired. The implicit message to analysts: speak no evil of clients' companies. To help you separate the good buys from the good-byes when your broker calls, MONEY staff writer Marguerite T. Smith talked with Alfred C. Morley, 63, who began as a securities analyst 40 years ago and is now president of the Association for Investment Management and Research in Charlottesville, Va. Highlights of the interview: Q. Are analysts always under pressure to say favorable things about companies? A. Always. Part of an analyst's role is to find stocks that brokers can sell. Q. Is that why a recent study found that only 10% of analysts' reports recommend sells? A. There are more sell recommendations, but they are mislabeled. Sophisticated investors know that ''hold'' really means at least consider selling and ''sell'' means get out. Q. Isn't there a serious conflict of interest for research analysts? Some of them make money by bringing in underwriting business that could disappear if they write negative reports. A. Maybe some analysts pull their punches a bit. But don't forget: if an analyst's recommendations consistently fail to pan out, he'll be fired. Q. So if your broker urges you to buy 100 shares of Inspiration Inc., how should you respond? A. First, ask ''What else is your firm recommending that fits my objectives?'' Even if the broker is under pressure to push shares of that company, he will be forced to propose alternatives. Also, those other ideas are likely to come from the firm's portfolio strategist.

Q. Why is his opinion better than an analyst's? A. It's the strategist's job to sift out the brokerage firm's best ideas. Analysts follow specific industries and usually favor some stocks in them. But even though Quaker Oats, for instance, might be a buy within the food industry, other stock groups might offer more attractive opportunities for you. Q. After hearing about your alternatives, if you're still interested in Inspiration Inc., what questions should you ask your broker? A. Find out when the analyst issued the buy. You probably won't want to invest if the share price has already shot up by more than 15%. Q. How can you get independent research? A. Go to your library and study stock-price trends and company performance data in the weekly Value Line Investment Survey, which analyzes 1,700 stocks. If you find that this research backs up your brokerage report, you should consider investing in the stock.