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WINNERS ARE EMERGING AS THE RECOVERY GETS UNDER WAY
By Gary Belsky

(MONEY Magazine) – In recessions, as in wars, there are victors and vanquished. Many conservatively financed companies have spent the past year cutting costs or taking over competitors to build their market shares. Now, says Jeffrey Shames, chief equity officer for Massachusetts Financial Services, ''the strong are leaving the weak in the dust.'' MONEY canvassed two dozen analysts and fund managers to find companies that have emerged as winners. Here are the stocks that experts think are most attractively priced, listed in order of their potential for delivering profits to investors (see the table at right for price/earnings ratios and analysts' target prices): -- Roadway Services. The third largest trucking company in the U.S., with $3.1 billion in annual revenues, Roadway's share of the $14 billion trucking market has grown to 15%, from 13% in 1988 and only 8% in 1980. Since Roadway has no debt, the trucker has easily been able to finance its expansion into the $12 billion small-package delivery business, which is dominated by United Parcel Service. Roadway Package System, which started from scratch six years ago, generated $600 million in sales last year. Overall, analyst Otto Grote of Derby Securities in New York City expects Roadway's earnings to grow 15% annually through 1995 and thinks the stock could zoom by 56% to $75 in the next two years. -- Fleet/Norstar. After acquiring the failed Bank of New England (323 branches, $15 billion in assets) in July, Fleet became New England's largest bank holding company, with 848 branches and $48 billion in assets. In partnership with the leveraged buy-out firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Fleet bought the BNE from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for $625 million but took on very little risk: almost all problem loans can be returned to the FDIC within three years. Although the recession is hanging on longer in New England than in other parts of the U.S., ''Fleet will be able to pick up business throughout the Northeast over the next four years at the expense of weaker competitors,'' says Standard & Poor's analyst Richard Levine. He thinks Fleet's stock could jump 46% to $35 within a year. -- Deere. With annual revenues of more than $6 billion, Deere has solidified its position as the largest maker of tractors and farm equipment, accounting for about a third of the U.S. market. One reason: the recession forced competitors, such as Varity's Massey Ferguson, to scale back production. Deere spends nearly $300 million a year on research and development. ''The company should get a bigger share of the market as it spins out new products,'' says Prudential Securities analyst Steven Colbert. In fact, says Oppenheimer analyst Charles Harris, Deere's new tractor line, which will be introduced in 1992, could provide 10% annual earnings gains over the next five years. He expects Deere's stock to rise 40% to $70 within 18 months. -- Delta. The third largest U.S. air carrier, with annual revenues of $9 billion, Delta has increased its share of the skies by 19% since 1988, as several rivals have folded or had their wings clipped. Delta, which raised $476 million in a March stock offering, picked up traffic between the Northeast and Florida by paying $165 million in February for gates, airplanes and route rights of defunct rival Eastern Airlines. Though Delta lost $324 million, or $7.73 a share, in the fiscal year that ended in June, Ivy Growth Fund manager James LaTorre expects it to fly high as competitors fail. ''Thirty-seven percent of traffic is carried by bankrupt or near-bankrupt airlines,'' he says. LaTorre expects Delta's earnings to rebound to $4.50 in 1992 and $8.50 in 1993 and sees the stock zooming 33% to $100 within a year. -- May Department Stores. This retailer, which operates 328 stores in 31 states and has annual revenues of $11 billion, began shopping for bargains even before the recession. In 1988, May bought two chains, Foley's (38 stores) and Filene's (18 stores), from Federated Department Stores for $1.5 billion. Most recently, May acquired the 26-store Thalhimers chain for $317 million last November. ''In this environment, it's cheaper for May to buy stores than to build its own,'' says analyst Marina Lavis at the Strong mutual fund group in Milwaukee. Further expansion will be easy, she says, as more competitors fold and May is able to take over their stores. Lavis thinks May's stock can increase 20% to $65 within 12 months.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: NO CREDIT CAPTION: RECHARGED BY THE RECESSION While the slump weakened competitors, these financially solid companies got even stronger. They are ranked below by analysts' projections of potential gains in their share prices. All trade on the New York Stock Exchange, except for Roadway Services, sold over the counter. Price/earnings ratios are based on analysts' 1992 estimates.