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The IRS boss speaks out; Medigap shopping; stamp investing; spending tips; the candidates on banking WHERE THE JOBS WILL BE WHEN THE ECONOMY TURNS
(MONEY Magazine) – As the 4,000 attendees of a recent Austin job fair (see the photo) clearly know, the surest way to secure employment in the worst job market in eight years is to figure out which companies are hiring. And today, according to employment experts, job counselors and surveys of employers' 1992 hiring intentions, job seekers' best bets lie with small to mid-size firms employing 100 to 1,000 workers. Large corporations, fighting debt burdens and increased competition, are still cutting back. Lately they've laid off a nationwide average of 1,548 people a day, up from 1,508 in spring 1991, according to Workplace Trends, a newsletter for managers. But a March survey of 259 members of the Institute of American Entrepreneurs -- chiefly small to mid-size companies with 25 to 300 workers -- showed that 64% planned to boost their work force this year, up from 59% in '91. While encouraging, that modest five-point gain is scant cause for celebration. Nor are economists' predictions that the unemployment rate will dip only to around 7.3% by year-end from June's eight-year high of 7.8%. After all, that dismal 7.8% surprised many of these same experts when it was announced early in July. Then too, although a recent Manpower Inc. survey of 15,000 employers shows that 12% more companies plan to hire in 1992's third quarter than to fire workers or keep payrolls level, the figure is no block- buster. For example, that 12% compares with the 15% that Manpower reported the last time the U.S. emerged from a recession, in the early 1980s. Allowing for more than the usual pinch of salt, here's the job outlook for the rest of 1992: -- The most likely hirers, according to Manpower, will be in manufacturing (15% of firms surveyed expect to add workers), services (14%) and retail (13%), where cutbacks have been most severe during the downturn. -- While hiring is expected to increase in all regions, the greatest surge -- 14% -- will be in the Midwest. Indeed, while many states lost jobs recently, North and South Dakota experienced annualized job-growth rates of 2% to 3%, according to Arizona State University's Economic Outlook Center. The smallest forecasted gains -- 7% -- will be in the West. Economists expect that competition for jobs will remain stiff everywhere through the fall, however, as more laid-off workers begin active employment searches. For names, addresses and descriptions of 700 primarily medium-size companies that are likely to expand, get America's Fastest Growing Employers, edited by Carter Smith (Bob Adams, $14.95). One more tip: Before interviewing, scan recent issues of your newspaper at the library for prospective small and mid-size firms. ''For job seekers now, information is power,'' says Smith. |
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