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SHOOT FOR A 23% GAIN IN 1993 WITH THIS HOT PRO'S PICKS
(MONEY Magazine) – Few people other than clients know the name of the hottest big-money investment manager of the past five years. And no wonder: The firm, Provident Investment Counsel of Pasadena, doesn't accept accounts of less than $10 million. But there's a way around that megabuck minimum. A top Provident executive also runs a little-known stock fund, $67 million Enterprise Capital Appreciation (4.75% load; 800-432-4320), that has performed as spectacularly as its adviser -- and it accepts investments as small as $1,000. In its first five years, to Nov. 17, Enterprise rose 146%, vs. 105% for Standard & Poor's 500-stock index (as depicted on the left). Low-profile Provident manages $10 billion, mainly in growth stocks. In CDA Investment Technologies' latest rankings of 323 managers to Oct. 1, Provident's five-year return of 120% lapped the 54% gains of both its peers as a group and the S&P 500. Furthermore, the firm's one-year return of 21% nearly doubled the 11% turned in by big-money managers and stocks overall. Provident's 100% edge? ''Buy the best, skip the rest, and don't get faked out by bad news,'' says Jeff Miller, 42, Enterprise's manager from the beginning and one of Provident's five owners. And, he adds, don't be swayed by anyone's market outlook. ''We're stock pickers,'' he explains. ''We don't try to forecast movements in the markets or the economy.'' The fund's strength, says Miller, lies in holding only the stocks of companies with exemplary balance sheets and profit growth. One of his key value yardsticks, long-term debt to equity, averages a modest 33% for Enterprise's 47-stock portfolio, vs. 68% for stocks generally. Another, return on equity -- a gauge of a company's ability to self-finance future growth -- averages 26%, triple the rate for stocks overall. The clincher: Over the past three recession-marred years, profit growth of the fund's stocks averaged a bustling 28% annually, vs. a 2% decline for the S&P 500. Adds Miller: ''Yet our stocks as a group are priced only 33% above the market's earnings multiple,'' lately 15, based on Provident's 1993 profit forecasts. Miller says his quest for the best precludes broad diversification. Almost half of Enterprise's assets are socked away in two go-for-growth sectors: medical stocks, led by HMO chain U.S. Healthcare (about 5% of assets), and discount retailers like Home Depot and Wal-Mart (each also 5%). Looking ahead, he thinks the following five big holdings, including Home Depot, have the potential to appreciate 23%, on average, based on his 1993 target prices (see the table on page 149): -- Amgen. This $1 billion biotech sensation, based in Thousand Oaks, Calif., is Miller's biggest drugmaker bet (4% of the fund). He believes that the stock's price doesn't fully reflect the enormous potential demand for Amgen's two breakthrough drugs, Epogen and Neupogen. Epogen (47% of sales) combats anemia by stimulating the body's production of red blood cells. Neupogen (49%) enhances growth of white blood cells and thwarts infection in cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. What many investors overlook, Miller adds, is how quickly Neupogen could earn regulatory approvals for broader uses, such as treating AIDS. He's counting on three-year growth of 30% annually and 15% ; share-price appreciation to $90 in '93. -- Charming Shoppes. Miller says this chain of 1,220 stores, which sell moderately priced women's clothing, mostly in no-frills strip shopping centers, is thriving in the face of hard times. Same-store sales at the $1 billion chain, based in the Philadelphia suburb of Bensalem, are up 7% annually under the hipper senior managers who took over in the late 1980s. Miller's forecast: three-year profit growth averaging 20% and a 1993 stock price of $52. Says he: ''That's a fetching 44% gain.'' -- Home Depot. This fast-expanding $6.6 billion chain of 204 home improvement stores doesn't know from recession. During the past 12 months, same-store sales surged 16%, vs. flat revenues for retailers in general. And Miller is confident the Atlanta-bred firm will soon complete its 28th straight quarter of record sales and profits. He predicts three-year profit growth of 30% annually and a 21% spurt in the stock price to $74 this year. -- International Game Technology. The rapid spread of state-sanctioned casinos -- aboard riverboats, on Indian reservations and recently in New Orleans -- has parlayed profits of this $360 million Reno firm at a five-year rate of 67% annually. IGT has a roughly 55% share of the $550 million world market for slot machines and electronic games like video poker. Miller forecasts three- year earnings growth averaging 35% and a '93 stock price of $58, a 16% payoff. -- Medco Containment Services. Holding down health costs, notes Miller, has enabled this $1.8 billion Montvale, N.J. firm to compound earnings at a heady 45% annual clip since 1987. Medco has a 55% share of the booming $3 billion market for mail-order pharmacy services: processing prescriptions and insurance claims for drugs sold at volume discounts via group health plans. Over the next three years, Miller expects Medco to grow a still torrid 35% annually from its current base of 28 million customers in 1,235 plans. And he's aiming for a stock price of $43 this year's potential 19% profit. BOX: Enterprise soars to the stars If you've never heard of Jeff Miller's Enterprise Capital Appreciation Fund, it's probably because the small, $67 million portfolio just clocked its first five-year return in mid-November. Take note: During that period, unheralded Enterprise trounced both the market and stock funds as a group. In the process, it posted annual gains ranging from 4% to 59%. CHART: NOT AVAILABLE ! CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT: NO CREDIT CAPTION: STOCKS THAT PROMISE BIG GAINS Jeff Miller believes these firms' profits can grow an average of about 30% a year to 1996. The stocks are ranked according to his projected share-price advances by year-end 1993. |
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