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SIX ACCIDENTS WAITING TO HAPPEN
By Michael Sivy Wall Street editor Michael Sivy is a chartered financial analyst and a former director of research on Wall Street.

(MONEY Magazine) – Now that the Dow has sailed on past 3600, share prices are at the sort of peak levels that preceded the 1929 crash, the hideous bear market of 1973-74 and the 1987 crash. It's time to be mighty careful.

Does that mean that stock prices can't rise even more? Not necessarily. "For the past five years, the market has been dominated by momentum investors," says Michael Murphy, editor of the California Technology Stock Letter in Half Moon Bay, Calif., "and their principle is that as long as a company's earnings are growing rapidly, it doesn't matter what you pay for the stock -- it'll go higher." Trouble is, momentum runs out eventually. And analysts such as Murphy believe that the prices of many stocks are now so high that investors who own them should consider selling, and those who don't shouldn't buy. Says Geraldine Weiss, editor of Investment Quality Trends in La Jolla, Calif.: "Investors have a habit of looking at upside potential without asking what the downside is." Here are six stocks that the pros consider especially vulnerable. "I think interest rates could move up in the fall," says Joe McAlinden, chief investment officer at Dillon Read in New York City. "And stocks with high price/earnings ratios could be badly hurt." If rising rates knocked down the overall market by 15%, for example, these six high-fliers could take a 25% dive. They are discussed in order of their P/Es, starting with the highest, based on Value Line's and other analysts' estimates of 1993 earnings. -- Starbucks (SBUX; recently sold over the counter at $48.50 a share; 85.1 P/ E). The world's hottest coffee shop chain, Seattle-based Starbucks, which went public in June 1992, still has almost all of its 240 outlets west of the Mississippi. As I learned when I tasted my first cup of Starbucks' Viennese roast last summer in Boulder, Easterners have something to look forward to. But at 85.1, the P/E of this little company (estimated 1993 sales: $150 million) is on quite a caffeine jag, and McAlinden rates it as a prime candidate for a P/E squeeze. -- International Game Technology (IGT; New York Stock Exchange, $38; 54.3 P/ E). Gambling stocks are one of the highest-flying groups nowadays. And $460 million IGT, the world's leading maker of slot machines, has been run up as the obvious play on the industry, says money manager Larry Jeddeloh in Minneapolis. "We own the stock, and we've more than doubled our money since last year," he says, "but I certainly wouldn't buy it here." -- Home Depot (HD; NYSE, $42.75; 40.7 P/E). The leading chain of building supply stores for do-it-yourselfers, $9 billion Home Depot has long been a favorite stock among growth investors. However, McAlinden rates it right up there with Starbucks as a likely candidate for a punctured P/E. -- Motorola (MOT; NYSE, $95.75; 31.9 P/E). The chief maker of cellular phones and a chip producer for personal computers, $15.8 billion Motorola has soared as those industries have boomed. "The businesses may be good," cautions Weiss, "but the stock is 30% above its historical valuation and doesn't bear buying." -- Microsoft (MSFT; OTC, $75; 23.8 P/E). This $3.8 billion powerhouse dominates the software business the way that IBM controlled hardware 10 years ago. But, cautions analyst Jim Floyd at the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis, "Competition is heating up in the software industry, and it will be hard for Microsoft to maintain its high profit margins." As if that weren't enough, the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department announced in late August that it plans to investigate the company's competitive practices. -- Carter-Wallace (CAR; NYSE, $32.50; 22.4 P/E). Shares of $760 million Carter-Wallace, the largest U.S. maker of condoms, including Trojan brand, are overpriced because "everyone is focused on AIDS," says Weiss. She adds: "It's the only drug company I follow that's overvalued."

BOX:

-- On the economy: "Growth will slouch along below 2.5% over the next year."

-- On stocks: "With the Dow above 3600, the market is highly vulnerable to a drop of more than 15%."

-- On bonds: "Interest rates will start rising by year-end, and bond prices will erode."