The Year to Shop Till You Drop Get ready for seductive prices, instant delivery and grateful service. Retailers want you coming back for more.
By Lesley Alderman

(MONEY Magazine) – While cruising the overvalued stock market routes next year, you must proceed with caution. When you move into the consumer lane, however, you will face the open road, wide and beckoning: 1994 will definitely be chockablock with deals aimed at price-sensitive consumers. "It's a very competitive environment," says Sandra Shaber, an economist at the WEFA Group in Bala Cynwyd, Pa. "Companies are fighting tooth and nail for consumer dollars." -- It's not that Americans won't spend. They will. While disposable income edged up a scant 1.8% in 1993, consumer spending grew almost twice as fast at a robust 3.2%. However, the price must be right. And shoppers do get more demanding as they rise up the scale: More than four out of 10 families with incomes of more than $50,000 have enrolled in discount warehouse clubs, vs. a still impressive 28% of households overall. -- Looking immediately ahead at the consumer climate for 1994, we see these money-saving trends: Car makers will again load many of their new models with no-charge options; restaurant prices will remain moderate as chefs substitute lower-priced items; niche airlines will provoke regional mini fare wars with the national carriers; retailers will launch or expand shop-from-home options; and the snazziest of the new computing machines will get cheaper. As if that's not rosy enough, there's a bonus: A strengthening dollar, up about 10% over last year against most European currencies, will make your next vacation abroad quite affordable. And the better exchange rate will also reduce the prices of many imports, particularly home furnishings. Indeed, 1994 will be a very good year to go on a buying binge. To guide you to the most valuable deals of 1994, MONEY talked to dozens of retailing and marketing experts across the country. Here's our forecast:

AIR FARES Upstart airlines will offer no-frills flights that will drive down prices in many markets. Look for the big boys to play catch-up with feisty new regional airlines such as Newark-based Kiwi International and Reno Air in Nevada. Last September, for example, Southwest -- which is expanding eastward -- inaugurated service from Cleveland to Baltimore, a major USAir hub, causing fares to fall 95%, to as low as $19 one way. With upstart airline rates on selected round-trip routes offering travelers savings of as much as $500 compared with major carriers, the nationals are countering the competition they can no longer afford to ignore. Continental, for instance, introduced its CALite flights in October for cheaper service among 16 mostly southeastern cities. And United is considering a low-fare service called Friendship Express. These lean operations fly with lower-paid staff and few extras. Expect trade-offs -- such as having to pay for meals or forgetting about on-board magazines or frequent-flier programs. Bottom line? A good news/bad news climate: You will have more low fares, but you may not find a flight that leaves when you prefer or lands in the exact place you had in mind. With flexibility, though, you can take advantage of regional specials. First, check flights and fares to cities or airports near your destination. You may also get a cheaper ticket by booking connecting rather than nonstop flights. In addition, check out Best Fares Travel Clubs, which just introduced a reservation system called Ultra-fair that searches for the lowest fare to a given area rather than to a specific airport. The system also tracks all available discounts, such as companion rates, and senior citizen and student fares ($58 annual fee, including a year's subscription to Best Fares magazine; 800-880-1234).

AUTOS Many '94 model prices will be 10% cheaper than they were in '93. Car makers are poised to capture your dollars with some of the best deals in a decade. In January, for instance, Chrysler will unveil a new sporty economy car dubbed the Neon. For a moderate $11,500, about 10% less than a comparably equipped Honda Civic will command, the Neon will offer dual air bags as well as a bit more head- and legroom than the Civic. Even highfalutin Mercedes-Benz has got hungry: The luxury-car maker recently introduced stylish C-class sedans, starting at $29,900, aimed at younger buyers who have been choosing BMW and Lexus models. For 1994 cars, the Big Three will continue their strategy of "value pricing" to boost new-car sales. This 1993 Detroit innovation incorporated many popular options into models that didn't quickly move off showroom floors -- and then priced the cars below their original base. For example: The '94 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme, loaded with air conditioning, AM-FM radio and air bags, will cost only $16,955. Add those same extras to the old base and the price rises to almost $20,000. Says Christopher Cedergren, an analyst at the Auto Pacific Group consulting firm: "Cutlass sales should jump 15% to 20% because of the new pricing strategy." He predicts that 50% to 60% of American vehicles in 1994 will be packaged this way, offering smart buyers savings of 10% or more. Tip-off to "value priced" models? Look for ads that heavily tout price and also describe an array of extras.

COMPUTERS Best buys in '94 will be PCs that come with CD-ROM drives. No question. If you are one of the 65 million households that have not yet succumbed, this is the year to bring home a personal computer. It's also a terrific time to trade up. Most experts recommend a multimedia PC -- that is, one with a built-in CD-ROM drive along with the necessary sound and graphics cards. Already, a fully equipped multimedia PC that cost $2,500 at the end of '92 runs $1,500 to $1,600. There are more savings ahead. "Prices may fall another $300 by the end of 1994," says Tim Bajarin at Creative Strategies Research International in San Jose. Multimedia PCs, which average about $300 more than other models, let you run comprehensive programs like Microsoft's Cinemania ($80), a compilation of reviews of 20,000 movies. You can also watch video clips of classic film scenes, listen to excerpts of theme songs or peruse a list of every Academy Award winner. Microsoft's Encarta ($349; $99 until Dec. 31), a 29-volume encyclopedia, includes video and audio clips of moments in history and a simulation of the earth's and moon's orbit. The number of available CD-ROM titles will soar, from the current 3,000 to an estimated 4,000 by the end of '94. Bajarin's shopping tips: DOS users should choose a PC with an internal CD- ROM drive, a 486 microprocessor chip, 200MB hard drive, 4MBs of RAM and a SVGA color monitor. The equivalent buy for Mac users is the Quadra 605 with a built-in CD-ROM drive (between $1,600 and $1,795). Before making a purchase, though, be sure to find out whether the computer can be equipped with a faster microprocessor chip. That way, when new technology develops a chip faster than the current 486 or the 586 chip, you will easily be able to update your machine.

EATING ON THE RUN Fast food will go gourmet as home delivery services cater to all tastes. Now that 43% of every food dollar spent goes to pay restaurant bills, you will be glad to learn that restaurant prices will increase only 2% in 1994 -- a full percentage point less than the rate of inflation. And the trend for new restaurants is toward tasty lower-priced options -- cod or monkfish, for instance, instead of salmon steak. "The '80s are over," says Tim Zagat of the Zagat Restaurant Surveys. "People don't want to spend $100 a head anymore."

In fact, people barely want to leave their homes at all. Witness the rise of businesses called by the industry "third-party delivery services." Such services cook nothing. They simply pick up and deliver. For $2 to $7 above the cost of meals, these companies deliver food prepared by participating eateries to your home (or office). You are hardly limited to pizza or wonton soup. Restaurants that sign on run the gamut from delis and moderate burger joints, such as Chili's and TGI Friday's, to four-star establishments. "Americans no longer have time to cook," explains Kevin Abt, CEO of Takeout Taxi, which is the first meal-delivery service that has gone national. Starting with one store in Herndon, Va. five years ago, Takeout Taxi now has 71 locations in 21 states. Says Abt: "Food-delivery services are a concept whose time has come." If your neighborhood doesn't yet sport such an option, look for one soon: In 1987, there were less than 10 such firms in the country. Now, reports Peter Hetherington at Meal Delivery Digest, there are more than 800. He estimates that there will be 1,000 by year-end.

AT HOME Buy soon to lock up today's great deals on imported furniture and rugs. "The recession in Europe has caused many overseas furniture manufacturers to drop prices," says Wallace Epperson, a furniture securities analyst with Mann Armistead & Epperson in Richmond. Coupled with the stronger dollar, you will find bargains on selected imports. For example, at ABC Carpet & Home, an upscale New York City furnishings emporium, a cherry sleigh bed from Tradition France is priced at $995. Two years ago, the tag read $1,295. If you are in the market, don't delay. Prices may again rise as the European economy gains steam later in 1994. Other immediate high-value imports for '94 are new handmade rugs from the Orient, which have dropped about 25% since 1992, according to Alex Peykar of Nourison, the largest U.S. importer of handmade rugs. For instance: A hand- tufted wool nine-foot-by-12-foot rug from China that cost $899 in early 1992 now sells for about $599. But Peykar warns that the exchange rate has stabilized in China, where the best wool rugs are being made today. Over the next several months, prices could rise as much as 10%.

KIDS Besides playing with video games and in-line skates, kids will want to go fishing. No kidding. Beware the hype, cautions Marian Salzman, president of BKG Youth, a New York City research firm that samples kid opinions around the country. "Remember," says Salzman, "the media distort the wants of children. Yes, they want the newest video game release, but at the top of their wish list is simply to spend more time with their parents." That translates into a mixed message. Kids will covet the latest tech-heavy gadget. Yet simultaneously, says Salzman, "kids are showing new interest in simple pastimes like family camping trips, bowling and fishing." Here's what your kids will crave this year on the hot-item side of the '94 balancing act: -- In-line skating is still freewheeling, up 205% from 1987 to 1992. Kid-size Rollerblades, at $80 a pop, remain hip. -- Baseball is out; basketball is in. Interest in soccer is about to take off as the World Cup games arrive in nine cities across the U.S. this summer. -- Sports-star sneakers keep their cool. Look for Nike's Air Veer ($110). -- Video games get more sophisticated and more violent. Perennially favorite systems, such as Sega Genesis ($100) and Super Nintendo ($100), continue strong. The year's hot-selling game? Acclaim's Mortal Kombat ($65 to $75) -- yes, the controversial street-fighter game. -- Jeans just get bigger. The latest: Levi's 560 Loose jeans (about $40).

STORES WITHOUT WALLS Retailers will be barging into your home next year. Keep an ear out for retailers who increasingly will knock on your front door -- one way or another. All sorts of manufacturers, from car and washing machine makers to computer and bicycle builders, will be selling you wares in '94 via your phone, mail, cable TV and computer hookup. Says Watts Wacker at the research firm of Yankelovich Partners: "An incredible number of retailers and distributors are removing the middlemen." (Don't think that means you will be rewarded with wholesale prices, though. Mall and shop-at- home price tags will run about even in the coming year.) On the leading edge, marketers will experiment with the only thing home shopping lacks: a feel for the real thing. For instance, in the fall, Apple began giving buyers of its new machines a CD-ROM disk that works as a software catalogue. The Software Dispatch (800-937-2828, ext. 600) offers more than 80 CD-ROM disk titles, ranging from KidsMath to Lotus 1-2-3 at prices equivalent to those of discounters. Users can "sample" titles on the disk and opt to buy the program by calling a toll-free line. You charge the program on a credit card, and the catalogue company provides an access code that you key into your computer to unlock the software. Then you copy the program to your hard drive. Other companies, such as TestDrive and InfoNow Corp., also offer disk catalogues to PC users and buyers.

TRAVEL For vacation values, go east to the Orient or head down to South America. "Over the next few years," says Earlene Causey, president of the American Society of Travel Agents, "Europe will lose many travelers to the Orient." Not only is the region less expensive than Europe, but the Orient's exotic sights tend to appeal to veteran travelers. For example: Pacific Bestour (800-688-3288) features a six-night tour to Beijing through March for $998 -- $200 less than in 1993. The price includes round-trip air fare from the West Coast, accommodations at the five-star Shangri-La Hotel (double $ occupancy) and sightseeing trips to the Great Wall and the Ming Tombs. And watch for vacations in Vietnam (believe it or not) to turn chic. The Treasury Department relaxed its restrictions on U.S. travelers in 1992. Next fall, Pearl Cruises (800-556-8850) will offer 15-day sails along the coastline. Another formerly troubled country will also draw travelers this year. Richard Ryel at International Expeditions predicts that Peru will become a choice Latin American destination during 1994. Only a five-hour flight from Miami, Peru offers a magnificent coastline, tropical rain forests and awesome Incan ruins. Locked in turmoil by the Shining Path terrorists, the country scared away tourists in the '80s. Now, Peru has stabilized under President Alberto Fujimori, who took office in 1990. Ryel notes that his bookings to Peru nearly doubled in 1993 -- from 500 to 950 -- and he expects a 50% increase in 1994. Sample trip: International Expeditions' (800-633-4734) 10-day Solar Eclipse and Incan Empire Tour. You would hear lectures by astronomers, see the Nov. 3 solar eclipse from the northern edge of the Atacama Desert (in one of the best places in South America to view it) and explore Machu Picchu. The tour leaves Nov. 1 ($2,298 a person, double occupancy) and includes hotels, meals and round-trip fare from Miami.

Our last bit of advice? With so many prices slated to be so right in '94, don't forget to kick tires before buying.

CHART: NOT AVAILABLE CREDIT:Sources: American Furniture Manufacturers Association, Auto Pacific Group, Dataquest, DRI/McGraw-Hill, Farm Sector Economics, Smith Travel Research, Technomic, the WEFA Group CAPTION: The 1994 forecast: Everyday low prices Industry analysts made these predictions. Note that cars and clothing will rise at less than the 3% average inflation rate.