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Natural resources A LOT OF DULL OLD COMMODITIES COULD SOAR IN '94
(MONEY Magazine) – Now that the economy is finally showing some life after nearly three years of listless recovery, commodity prices are likely to start marching higher. ''In the chemical industry, we're just six months or so away from the point at which prices can be raised,'' says analyst Paul Raman at S.G. Warburg in New York City. As a result, some analysts are recommending the shares of companies that produce chemicals, paper and industrial metals. Here's a quick look at three stocks that could profit from the expanding economy and give investors total returns, including dividends, of as much as 38% over the next 18 months: -- Dow Chemical (symbol: DOW; NYSE, $57). Among chemical stocks, Raman favors Dow (estimated 1993 sales: $18.6 billion), in part because of its high 4.6% yield. In addition, he says, ''The auto industry and housing are both doing well, and that will increase the demand for the chemicals that Dow makes.'' Raman figures that price hikes could add 30 cents a share to Dow's earnings next year, and that growth in volume could kick in another 50 cents. Overall, Raman expects earnings to rise 36% to $3 a share in '94. He thinks Dow stock could hit the mid-$70s within 18 months, providing shareholders with a 38% total return. -- Cyprus Amax Minerals (CYM; NYSE, $24.25). Cyprus Minerals' $1.3 billion acquisition of Amax in November created a $2.9 billion mining giant that is the second largest U.S. producer of copper and the third largest coal miner. And both those businesses could get a boost next year, says senior metals analyst J. Clarence Morrison at Prudential Securities in New York City. ''Copper will benefit from a worldwide industrial turnaround,'' he says. ''Also, a stronger recovery in the U.S. will require more electricity and increase demand for Cyprus' low-sulfur coal.'' Morrison estimates that earnings will increase 140% to $2.40 in 1994. And he thinks Cyprus Amax stock, which yields 3.3%, could reach $28 within 12 months, for a 19% total return. -- Mead (MEA; NYSE, $43.25). Analyst Tore L. Stole at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis considers Mead, with sales of $4.8 billion, to be one of the most attractive forest-products stocks, in part because it's cheap. Mead currently trades at less than 14 times estimated 1994 earnings, compared with P/Es as high as 20 for other forest-products companies. In addition, Mead has growth prospects. Some 13% of the paper company's earnings stem from electronic publishing; its Mead Data Central operates information systems such as Lexis and Nexis, which could enjoy profit gains of 10% to 15% annually over the next five years. Stole sees Mead's earnings climbing 44% to $3.15 in 1994. He thinks the stock, yielding 2.3%, could rise to $50 a share within 15 months for an 18% total return. |
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